Laurie Garrett of Newsday sent this email to a bunch of her friends. >It got around. Then it got loose. Reportedly she is quite steamed about >it, as well she might be. But it's been circulated to thousands already. > >Laurie Garrett is the only writer ever to have been awarded all three >of the Big "Ps" of journalism: The Peabody, The Polk (twice), and The >Pulitzer. Garrett has been honored with two doctorates in humane >letters honoris causa, from Weslayan Illinois University and the >University of Massachussetts, Lowell. She is the author of "The >Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance" >and "Betrayal of Trust: The Collapse of Global Public Health." She is a >medical and science writer for Newsday in New York City. > >------------------------ Forwarded Message------------------- > >A candid "State of the Ruling Class" >Report from Davos >Laurie Garrett [Newsday] > >Hi Guys. OK, hard to believe, but true. Yours truly has been >hobnobbing with the ruling class. > >I spent a week in Davos, Switzerland at the World Economic Forum. I >was awarded a special pass which allowed me full access to not only >the entire official meeting, but also private dinners with the likes >the head of the Saudi Secret Police, presidents of various and sundry >countries, your Fortune 500 CEOS and the leaders of the most >important NGOs in the world. This was not typical press access. It >was full-on, unfettered, class A hobnobbing. > >Davos, I discovered, is a breathtakingly beautiful spot, unlike >anything I'd ever experienced. Nestled high in the Swiss Alps, it's a >three hours train ride from Zurich that finds you climbing steadily >through snow-laden mountains that bring to mind Heidi and Audrey >Hepburn (as in the opening scenes of "Charade"). The EXTREMELY >powerful arrive by helicopter. The moderately powerful take the first >class train. The NGOs and we mere mortals reach heaven via coach >train or a conference bus. Once in Europe's bit of heaven conferees >are scattered in hotels that range from B&B to ultra luxury 5-stars, >all of which are located along one of only three streets that bisect >the idyllic village of some 13,000 permanent residents. > >Local Davos folks are fanatic about skiing, and the slopes are >literally a 5-15 minute bus ride away, depending on which astounding >downhill you care to try. I don't know how, so rather than come home >in a full body cast I merely watched. > >This sweet little chalet village was, during the WEF, packed with >about 3000 delegates and press, some 1000 Swiss police, another 400 >Swiss soldiers, numerous tanks and armored personnel carriers, >gigantic rolls of coiled barbed wire that gracefully cascaded down >snow- covered hillsides, missile launchers and assorted other tools >of the national security trade. The security precautions did not, of >course, stop there. Every single person who planned to enter the >conference site had special electronic badges which, upon being >swiped across a reading pad, produced a computer screen filled color >portrait of the attendee, along with his/her vital statistics. These >were swiped and scrutinized by soldiers and police every few minutes >-- any time one passed through a door, basically. The whole system >was connected to handheld wireless communication devices made by HP, >which were issued to all VIPs. I got one. Very cool, except when they >crashed. Which, of course, they did frequently. These devices >supplied every imaginable piece of information one could want about >the conference, your fellow delegates, Davos, the world news, etc. >And they were emailing devices --- all emails being monitored, of >course, by Swiss cops. > >Antiglobalization folks didn't stand a chance. Nor did Al Qaeda. >After all, if someone managed to take out Davos during WEF week the >world would basically lose a fair chunk of its ruling and governing >class POOF, just like that. So security was the name of the game. >Metal detectors, X-ray machines, shivering soldiers standing in >blizzards, etc. > >Overall, here is what I learned about the state of our world: > >- I was in a dinner with heads of Saudi and German FBI, plus the >foreign minister of Afghanistan. They all said that at its peak Al >Qaeda had 70,000 members. Only 10% of them were trained in terrorism >-- the rest were military recruits. Of that 7000 [terrorists], they >say all but about 200 are dead or in jail. > >- But Al Qaeda, they say, is like a brand which has been heavily >franchised. And nobody knows how many unofficial franchises have been >spawned since 9/11. > >- The global economy is in very very very very bad shape. Last year >when WEF met here in New York all I heard was, "Yeah, it's bad, but >recovery is right around the corner". This year "recovery" was a word >never uttered. Fear was palpable -- fear of enormous fiscal hysteria. >The watchwords were "deflation", "long term stagnation" and "collapse >of the dollar". All of this is without war. > >- If the U.S. unilaterally goes to war, and it is anything short of a >quick surgical strike (lasting less than 30 days), the economists >were all predicting extreme economic gloom: falling dollar value, >rising spot market oil prices, the Fed pushing interest rates down >towards zero with resulting increase in national debt, severe trouble >in all countries whose currency is guaranteed against the dollar >(which is just about everybody except the EU), a near cessation of >all development and humanitarian programs for poor countries. Very >few economists or ministers of finance predicted the world getting >out of that economic funk for minimally five-10 years, once the >downward spiral ensues. > >- Not surprisingly, the business community was in no mood to hear >about a war in Iraq. Except for diehard American Republicans, a few >Brit Tories and some Middle East folks the WEF was in a foul, angry >anti-American mood. Last year the WEF was a lovefest for America. >This year the mood was so ugly that it reminded me of what it felt >like to be an American overseas in the Reagan years. The rich -- >whether they are French or Chinese or just about anybody -- are livid >about the Iraq crisis primarily because they believe it will sink >their financial fortunes. > >- Plenty are also infuriated because they disagree on policy grounds. >I learned a great deal. It goes FAR beyond the sorts of questions one >hears raised by demonstrators and in UN debates. For example: > >- If Al Qaeda is down to merely 200 terrorists cadres and a handful >of wannabe franchises, what's all the fuss? > >- The Middle East situation has never been worse. All hope for a >settlement between Israel and Palestine seems to have evaporated. The >energy should be focused on placing painful financial pressure on all >sides in that fight, forcing them to the negotiating table. >Otherwise, the ME may well explode. The war in Iraq is at best a >distraction from that core issue, at worst may aggravate it. Jordan's >Queen Rania spoke of the "desperate search for hope". > >- Serious Islamic leaders (e.g. the King of Jordan, the Prime Minster >of Malaysia, the Grand Mufti of Bosnia) believe that the Islamic >world must recapture the glory days of 12-13th C Islam. That means >finding tolerance and building great education institutions and >places of learning. The King was passionate on the subject. It also >means freedom of movement and speech within and among the Islamic >nations. And, most importantly to the WEF, it means flourishing free >trade and support for entrepreneurs with minimal state regulation. >(However, there were also several Middle East representatives who >argued precisely the opposite. They believe bringing down Saddam >Hussein and then pushing the Israel/Palestine issue could actually >result in a Golden Age for Arab Islam.) > >- US unilateralism is seen as arrogant, bullyish. If the U.S. cannot >behave in partnership with its allies -- especially the Europeans -- >it risks not only political alliance but BUSINESS, as well. Company >leaders argued that they would rather not have to deal with US >government attitudes about all sorts of multilateral treaties >(climate change, intellectual property, rights of children, etc.) -- >it's easier to just do business in countries whose governments agree >with yours. And it's cheaper, in the long run, because the regulatory >environments match. War against Iraq is seen as just another example >of the unilateralism. > >- For a minority of the participants there was another layer of Anti- >Americanism that focused on moralisms and religion. I often heard >delegates complain that the US "opposes the rights of children", >because we block all treaties and UN efforts that would support sex >education and condom access for children and teens. They spoke of sex >education as a "right". Similarly, there was a decidedly mixed >feeling about Ashcroft, who addressed the conference. I attended a >small lunch with Ashcroft, and observed Ralph Reed and other >prominent Christian fundamentalists working the room and bowing their >heads before eating. The rest of the world's elite finds this >American Christian behavior at least as uncomfortable as it does >Moslem or Hindu fundamentalist behavior. They find it awkward every >time a US representative refers to "faith-based" programs. It's >different from how it makes non-Christian Americans feel - - these >folks experience it as downright embarrassing. > >- When Colin Powell gave the speech of his life, trying to win over >the non-American delegates, the sharpest attack on his comments came >not from Amnesty International or some Islamic representative -- it >came from the head of the largest bank in the Netherlands! > >I learned that the only economy about which there is much enthusiasm >is China, which was responsible for 77% of the global GDP growth in >2002. But the honcho of the Bank of China, Zhu Min, said that >fantastic growth could slow to a crawl if China cannot solve its >rural/urban problem. Currently 400 million Chinese are urbanites, and >their average income is 16 times that of the 900 million rural >residents. Zhu argued China must urbanize nearly a billion people in >ten years! > >I learned that the US economy is the primary drag on the global >economy, and only a handful of nations have sufficient internal >growth to thrive when the US is stagnating. > >The WEF was overwhelmed by talk of security, with fears of terrorism, >computer and copyright theft, assassination and global instability >dominating almost every discussion. > >I learned from American security and military speakers that, "We need >to attack Iraq not to punish it for what it might have, but >preemptively, as part of a global war. Iraq is just one piece of a >campaign that will last years, taking out states, cleansing the >planet." > >The mood was very grim. Almost no parties, little fun. If it hadn't >been for the South Africans -- party animals every one of them -- I'd >never have danced. Thankfully, the South Africans staged a helluva >party, with Jimmy Dludlu's band rocking until 3am and Stellenbosch >wines pouring freely, glass after glass after glass.... > >These WEF folks are freaked out. They see very bad economics ahead, >war, and more terrorism. About 10% of the sessions were about >terrorism, and it's heavy stuff. One session costed out what another >9/11-type attack would do to global markets, predicting a far, far >worse impact due to the "second hit" effect -- a second hit that >would prove all the world's post-9/11 security efforts had failed. >Another costed out in detail what this, or that, war scenario would >do to spot oil prices. Russian speakers argued that "failed nations" >were spawning terrorists --- code for saying, "we hate Chechnya". >Entire sessions were devoted to arguing which poses the greater >asymmetric threat: nuclear, chemical or biological weapons. > >Finally, who are these guys? I actually enjoyed a lot of my >conversations, and found many of the leaders and rich quite charming >and remarkably candid. Some dressed elegantly, no matter how bitter >cold and snowy it was, but most seemed quite happy in ski clothes or >casual attire. Women wearing pants was perfectly acceptable, and the >elite is sufficiently multicultural that even the suit and tie lacks >a sense of dominance. > >Watching Bill Clinton address the conference while sitting in the >hotel room of the President of Mozambique -- we were viewing it on >closed circuit TV -- I got juicy blow-by-blow analysis of US foreign >policy from a remarkably candid head of state. A day spent with Bill >Gates turned out to be fascinating and fun. I found the CEO of >Heinekin hilarious, and George Soros proved quite earnest about >confronting AIDS. Vicente Fox -- who I had breakfast with -- proved >sexy and smart like a-- well, a fox. David Stern (Chair of the NBA) >ran up and gave me a hug. > >The world isn't run by a clever cabal. It's run by about 5,000 >bickering, sometimes charming, usually arrogant, mostly male people >who are accustomed to living in either phenomenal wealth, or great >personal power. A few have both. Many of them turn out to be >remarkably naive especially about science and technology. All of them >are financially wise, though their ranks have thinned due to unwise >tech-stock investing. They pay close heed to politics, though most >would be happy if the global political system behaved far more >rationally -- better for the bottom line. They work very hard, >attending sessions from dawn to nearly midnight, but expect the >standards of intelligence and analysis to be the best available in >the entire world. They are impatient. They have a hard time >reconciling long term issues (global warming, AIDS pandemic, resource >scarcity) with their daily bottomline foci. They are comfortable >working across languages, cultures and gender, though white caucasian >males still outnumber all other categories. They adore hi-tech >gadgets and are glued to their cell phones. > >Welcome to Earth: meet the leaders. > >Ciao, Laurie
