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clock Created with Sketch. 27/06/14
10:09
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Originally posted by MJP
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I tried to think about what is happening to this stock and putting things in context and ended up feeling: The main story has not changed. Fear has grown because of the legal process taking longer than expected, management pretty much maintaining silence during the process,(because of the legal process no doubt), iron ore prices falling dramatically and shorters being able to easily affect the share price downwards on low turnover.Risk has grown primarily because of the falling iron ore price and the uncertainty of legal outcome. Although in the latter case risk would appear to be reducing.Sentiment has become negative because of the drawn out legal process, lack of comment by management, lack of exploration results, lack of outcomes for Mt Lindsay and of course targeting of the stock to bring the SP down. This then leading to FEAR that somehow the fundamentals have changed. I doubt that they have .Sifting through previous comments a few stood out for me. .... And the point most people are missing with this stock is that even at today's prices the DSO in the ground is worth somewhere between 20c and 30c per share clear profit. And I believe that is a conservative estimate. ...... 10c is looking like a good investment so long as your prepared to wait 3 - 6 months. I am hoping that management at least recommence the exploration drilling and keep adding to resource estimates. ........I agree the Tin grade is not "outstanding", Tin grades never are, but they are certainly to a level that makes the Lindsay project more than viable. There is also much more to be defined. I would also add that one of the other advantages of this stock is that it is multi-element. While tin is a good story, tungsten has the potential to be even better. Tick Iron ore prices have had a recent habit of dropping and then picking up again. I think the major players (BHP, Rio , Vale) like to increase supply to destabilise high cost companies but too much of a good thing affects their own profits so.... Venture has 4m ton of low cost DSO which should still be profitable at current prices. TickAmiafish wrote ....... I suspect the current lack of information from management has more to do with strategic misdirection (contra STT) than with a lack of intelligent contingency planning. Think about it and their recent comments and DYOR but I agree. Tick MrQ wrote ..... State of Tasmania and the Fed Minister joined in the appeal today So political sentiment is as extremely against STT and Tasmania wants jobs. Tick Then we also have: Good management. A lot of experience handling juniors and (imo) very astute. Tick $6m funding left, no need for raisings. Tick Fantastic exploration potential. on two major undersupplied commodities. (One can only salivate at the thought of what an exchange rate of 85c/1 $US would do to the current business model! And this has to be a valid scenario.) Tick A legal process that is being dragged to a (positive) conclusion. Tick A political and economic environment that is crying out for a project like this Tick And so on.. Anyway my thoughts for what they are worth to you. Regards
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Nice write-up MJP. It's sometimes a good exercise to lay things out in writing...helps to keep things in perspective and provide a bit of clarity.
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