the story unfolding, page-2

Smartdude

I am sure you are right in your assessment but incredibly there are OP who think TAP's gas assets are worth around $20M-40M!!

Autosime
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In Reply to msg: #10300760
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Sentiment: Buy
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Hi folks
I would suggest that it is rebalancing with the added lack of buying for those who fear / know are CR is coming . It could even be rebalancing plus instos selling
Now other things that are possible include further cost blow outs at Manora and or prod delay.
If not for the funding gap it would be a strong buy - probably still is

Coopec
I worry when I see investors in O and G companies not understanding that gross revenue Vs Cashflow margin are infinitely different .
First you take sale price and minus Opex and royalties .
So you 100 dollars per barrel is now 70. Then you minus cooperate costs - minus another 10-12 dollars . Then off course you have development drilling over the course of Manora life to maintain production . Another 10 dollars per barrel . Now we have 48 dollars per barrel. Now there is debt repayments which will consume all of the Cashflow in the first few years were there is no tax while the recover capex . By the time the loan is cleared , the production profile is lower - opex higher , govt taxes kick in and TAP need to use Cashflow to find or develop next project .

Tap is not in the position to pay a dividend and I can't see them paying one at all based on current assets . The key is all fields have natural decline - if production is to be kept at 4500 for more than a year it will require a fair bit of development drilling which will chew up a decent amount of cash flow . Maybe 20% of Cashflow

Anyway - good luck to all . I must admit I am surprised to see that at these levels