The surprising winners from Trump’s trade war? Almond farmers

This bodes well for the water market, as the growth in Almond planting alone over the past decade means the entire MDB supply in a dry year will be needed to keep these perennial trees alive. They can afford much higher water prices and even higher now the Almond price is increasing.

We live on a dry continent with a growing demand for water and stagnant supply of water, after 4 record wet years...


The surprising winners from Trump’s trade war? Almond farmersSimon EvansSenior reporterApr 14, 2025 – 8.00pmSaveShareGift this articleListen to this article4 minThe Trump administration’s trade war has created many losers; the list of winners is somewhat shorter. One of the more surprising? Australia’s almond industry, which is stepping in to fill the void left by steep barriers on imports from California, the source of 80 per cent of global production.Sales of Australian almonds to China have been growing for years. Now their biggest rival, the United States, has been locked out of a growing market amid a trade war between the world’s two largest economies.Peter Cavallaro at Walker Flat. He said rising prices were a boon to the industry, as Californian growers were locked out of China. Roy Van Der Vegt“Things are looking up, that’s for sure,” said Peter Cavallaro, the managing director of Walker Flat Almonds, which runs a large orchard east of Adelaide. “We’ve come out of a period of low prices. We do get these price spikes from time to time, and this one is very welcome.”The sweeping tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump on April 2 – his “liberation day” – have closed a lucrative market for American farmers and handed the advantage to others. Chinese buyers, faced with a 145 per cent tariff, are instead turning to Brazilian soya beans, for instance.American almonds face not only Chinese tariffs, but have been singled out by the European Union as one of the most likely industries to be targeted should Trump proceed with proposed imposts on their goods.Related QuotesSHVSelect Harvests Limited$5.250 0.19%1 year1 dayApr 24Jul 24Oct 24Apr 253.0003.6004.2004.8005.400Updated: Apr 15, 2025 – 7.28am. Data is 20 mins delayed.View SHV related articles AdvertisementIn response, the share price of Select Harvests, Australia’s largest listed almond producer, has soared. Since Trump first announced his tariff plans, its shares are up 6 per cent; the broader local market is down 2 per cent. Since the start of the year, Select Harvests’ market capitalisation has grown 25 per cent. The ASX has slumped more than 5 per cent.“All of the megatrends are moving in the right direction,” said Select Harvests chief executive David Surveyor, adding that almonds had also benefited from a growing interest in healthy eating and wellbeing.Select Harvests has about 9000 hectares of almond trees across South Australia, Victoria and NSW, and counts some of the country’s big fund managers as investors, from Phil King’s Regal Partners to Perpetual and Paradice Investment Management to industry superannuation giant Australian Retirement Trust.The chief executive of the Almond Board of Australia, Tim Jackson, said prices for Australian almonds have climbed 20 per cent in the past five weeks, and could head even higher, a boon for the country’s 160 growers.The Australian dollar’s weakness against the greenback has also lifted profits. Jackson said every 1¢ that the Australian dollar dropped against the US dollar added 15¢ per kilo for growers, who sell overseas in US dollars.The Almond Board estimates that China takes about 60 per cent of Australia’s exported almonds. Shipments have grown from about 600 tonnes in 2016 to more than 75,000 tonnes a year now.An almond orchard in Dixon, California. The state is the biggest grower of the tree nut in the world. Bloomberg“Almonds are super healthy, they are super flexible. It’s gone off the charts on so many different levels,” said Jackson, who estimated the total value of the Australian almond industry was more than $1 billion.The last time the US fell into a trade war with China – in 2018, during Trump’s first term in the White House – prices for California almonds slumped 10 per cent in just two months. That was when China was adding a 50 per cent tax to almonds. It is now levying a 125 per cent levy.According to Californian officials, almonds were the biggest agriculture export in 2022, the last year figures are available, with sales of $US4.7 billion, ahead of dairy products and pistachios.Liam Lenaghan, who runs almond grower Go.Farm Australia, said some growers were still cautious despite the rising prices.“Some people are looking over their shoulder a bit. I think we’re about to see a strong turnaround in profitability and activity in the industry,” he added.At Walker Flat, Cavallaro has just completed this year’s harvest, producing 450 tonnes. Demand and prices may not be a problem, but a lack of workers is. “Backpackers are getting a bit more choosy, they go for the bigger towns. We tend to get more grey nomads,” he said.