Yep, as a fundamentalist, I miss out on a lot of sharp gains.
I miss a lot of sharp losses, too.
I think the efficient market hypothesis is a load of crap. Markets get overenthused, and they get underenthused.
Karoon Gas is in a speculative bubble, driven by Greater Fool Theory.
There is the argument that Karoon's valuation is underpinned by the alleged farmin deal.
First of all, their country is not that good - cf the USGS report. Intermittent reservoir is not something you want, not at USD25 a throw.
Secondly, there is no deal, only rumours of a deal.
Personally, I think there are better offshore deals around - but at the end of the day, if there is a deal, the deal will be similar to what West Oil got, and that deal will imply the permits are worth about $20m.
As to news, we are about to have a bunch of shares come out of escrow ... what are the odds one or more of the seed capitalists are going to take the money and run ?
These arent large parcels being traded in Karoon - more value was traded in COE.
200 000 shares being dumped could do bad things to lthe price.
Finally, if you bought in at 20 cents and held on for the ride, good luck.
But remember to take at least some of the money and run.
As Quentin Cameron once said, the really important thing about junior oilers is knowing when to get out.
Ian Whitchurch
KAR Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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