just from what I can gather... (the more knowledgeable ones out...

just from what I can gather... (the more knowledgeable ones out there should correct or add to this)

as we enter the production phase with much of the initial risk including anti-Lynas sentiments out of the way and having got enough cash to see us through to first sales, the most important consideration going forward is the uncertainty of REE prices.

I read up everthing I could. been googling REE prices forecast, why REE prices have declined, etc.

so why has REE prices fallen ? my belief is simply

Overall weak macroeconomic condition of the world.
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_archive/2012wespupdate.pdf

REE consumers are simply not buying - despite such low prices. www.metal-pages.com

Of course there has been some demand destruction or substitution, and some say in anticipation of Molycorp and LYC producing, hence buyers are holding off in hope the surplus stock coming on-board will see a further erosion of prices.

The weakness and uncertainty in the REE prices underlies the reason behind the SP slide.

But keeping all those negatives aside ...

It is good to know however that even at today's prices, LYC is immensely profitable. The pros out there say that these prices we see today are sustainable - so hopefully the worse is behind us.

But even the slightest reversal of the weak demand situation will mean huge gains for Lynas. The barrier of entry is so enormous, and Lynas has already arrived - we are there, we are ready for when demand picks up and prices along with it - we just need to wait for the right moment.

What's more, China is running out of rare earth - how true this is I do not know....from an article a few months back...

http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2012-06/22/china-rare-earth-minerals-warning


the way I see it, the future is very bright for Lynas.