at some point in the near future there is going to be a serious...

at some point in the near future there is going to be a serious shift in investment from MolyCorp to Lynas.

Why?
- realisation that Mark Smith (MolyCorp CEO) is a spin doctor, especially with his unofficial consideration of doubling output ( http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-04/molycorp-says-it-s-considering-doubling-rare-earth-metals-output.html )
- Mark Smith didn't make it clear whether the doubling was: raw ore unprocessed extract; RE Oxide or RE Metal
- doubling of production will require more capital (maybe from there Japanese signups) - but this could result in a dilution to current shareholders depending on what deal is struck
- MolyCorp has already said it may not recommence mining until 2012 and the gear is aged
"Most of the facilities and equipment acquired with the Mountain Pass facility are at least 20 years old and must be modernized or replaced. Under its current business plan, the Company intends to spend approximately $511 million (see note 9(a)) through 2012 to restart mining operations, construct and refurbish processing facilities and other infrastructure at the Mountain Pass facility and to expand into the production of metals and alloys. The Company expects to finance these expenditures, as well as its working capital requirements, with the $378.6 million of net proceeds, from its IPO, anticipated revenue from operations and debt financing, project financing, and/or federal government programs, including the U.S. Department of Energy loan guarantee program for which the Company submitted an application in June 2010."
(MolyCorp's 15/11/2010 10Q filing http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/financials/drawFiling.asp?docKey=137-000095012310105684-2K15D8Q39239EBL500SKLDML74&docFormat=HTM&formType=10-Q)
- Lynas has already dug the raw material up and has well over 12 months worth graded and sitting in big heaps on the ground (Molycorp has leftover ore from previous operations that it is using in its pilot plant - see 10Q above)
- Molycorp are nowhere near ready yet
- Lynas has funding and is building state of the art modern facility to commence production of REO's in 2011 (Molycorp may not even recommence mining until 2012)
- bottom line MolyCorp is doing Powerpoint presentations while Lynas is actually building production plant

Now When will this shift happen???
- most likely there will be a trigger event that will bring investors to a realisation of the difference in maturity of the two offerings
- my feeling (DYOR) is that the announcement of completion of the Concentration Plant this month and the production of the first output from the concentration plant next month will polarise support towards lynas in the near term
- this will lead investors to look at MolyCorp and question where there plant is and how long until it will actually be in production and will Lynas pick up the golden window all to itself and enjoy a 1-2 year production period with no significant competition (while MolyCorp will miss the initial prime period)

Anyway just my rantings - as always DYOR