Malmanu it is a very naive assumption that the deal will get killed after 3 years. Why would the ACIS want to kill a deal that will be generating them phenomenal amounts of rev share. Moko owns all the IP for Rec It. If they kill the deal they will have to find a new partner and build the app from scratch. If they could have done by themselves - they would have!
One of the reasons the ACIS partnered with Moko is because of the expertise they provided in building a high end customised solution. It will take minimum 12 months, millions of dollars and a lot of resources to build REC IT from scratch. Moko was able to streamline the process because they had the platform and the expertise to complete this project.
BTW - Even if your prediction is true , by then Moko would be multiples of the current level because they would be generating ridiculous amounts of cash flow and all shareholders would have done exceptionally well.
Just remember this audience Moko will own......aint your avg audience...we talking about affluent college students that are going to be targeted straight to their mobile - the conversion rates is going to be off the chart and the demand for ad space will increase rapidly.
The very detailed fosters stock broking report covered the metrics based on industry avgs and is quite conservative in my view. IMO because this community is so specialised, conversion and premium rates will be significantly higher than industry standards.
The report still valued Moko at $1.12 based on these metrics. The target price was 40 cents in the short term and that was before the new deal.
Its like owning an audience the size of half the entire population of Australia! 10M students - Avg 2M new students each year when those in their final years graduate.
Even though revenue will cement the business model - the value of each user will rise each and every day. The part that gets me most excited is how much each user is/will be worth.
Remember FB paid instagram $45 per user. Rec It users will be worth more than Instagram users all day long!!!!
That’s why I think that the 10M users will be worth $80 to $100 per user and REC IT by itself could be worth $800M to $1B. Even at $45 a user thats $450M!
As we see from the latest deal the management arent going to stop there. I think the founder Ian Rodwell is a exceptional ceo, a very bright man with a great vision.
Will be interesting to see volume and price pick up once the brokers and instos are back from holidays.
MKB Price at posting:
31.5¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held