The total furphy about oversupply

Hi guys I'm back after the shorts had me suspended, but I will never shut up about the rubbish oversupply argument

Now the shorts from Citi and Morgans have been out in force trying to use the buyside hesitancy arising from the presidential debates to beat down iron ore prices yet again.

They publish this rubbish about an additional 200m tons between now and 2020. No tables from major suppliers, no statements from them about production nothing zilch zero just blanket assertion and "believe us" (as if)

Well I have done some checking myself on the majors (BHP, RIO, FMG and Vale) and what they themselves have stated

RIO has stated that for this year and next the problem with autonomous trains will result in a reduction of 2015 production rates of 10m tons a year. It has also indicated in its statements that they have as yet no committed any capex funds for new mine expansion

BHP has likewise stated that for 2016 and 2017 production will be 10m tons down on 2105. They have also not revealed detailed numbers about future expansion above and beyond current levels

FMG has vowed to keep production at current levels.

Roy Hill is estimated to produce 40m tons this year at what is much lower quality ore with an average fe grade of 52% (see their site) and 55 next year. However up until this month Roy Hill had already shipped 20m tons of iron ore

So HULLO when you add up the NET ADDITION TO SUPPLY FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS ITS WELL ITS A MASSIVE MASSIVE 10 MILLION TONS tsk tsk AND NO COMMITTED CAPEX EXPANSION AFTER THAT
So lets see the numbers boys from the majors backed up by their statements which gets to 100m additional

If YOU CAN'T PUT UP SHUT UP ABOUT OVERSUPPLY.

Now turning to Vale it has stated more than once in fact frequently, that its new 90m ton project will only ramp up at 25m tons per annum and IT WILL REPLACE NOT BE ADDITIONAL TO its existing production.

The PUBLISHED NUMBERS ON CLOSURES IN CHINA ARE SUCH THAT AT LEAST 50M TONS PER ANNUM IS LIKELY TO GO OUT OF PRODUCTION.

NO OVERSUPPLY _No more posts shorter unless you back them up with numbers and published statements