HZN 2.78% 18.5¢ horizon oil limited

The triggers....

  1. 2,163 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 105
    ...to a higher SP.
    OK its the POO,on which the news is a qualified tick for a better SP.
    But I think the dynamite is actually in the resumption of analysts coverage/s.
    Of those analysts reviews on the HZN website the one that stands out as the most likely to support a higher SP in the event of coverage being resumed is McQuaries March report on us and several of our peers.
    In their views of HZN and its peers we were the standout for the greatest likely gain potential-7c to 12c.Core NAV was calculated as 21cps and risked NAV as 31 cps
    But its in the detail in their opinion that the potential for a good early gain appears. Their 12c target price has a qualification-a big one. The way I read the report the 12c target needs the qualification to be negated and if this happens then the 12c target comes into play.
    The qualification is "We conservatively value HZN..... etc.etc.... with $US65m of additional equity required over the next 3 years to cover the Bonds redemption and senior (bank) debt amortisation."
    IMO the prospect of additional equity being needed in the next 3 years is a big fat zero,or close to it (acts of God aside).
    If McQuaries interpret the same data the way I think they will then they are likely to remove the tag on 12c in their next report.
    If that happens then we likely wont need a "campaign to restore the SP".
    Im watching to see the analysts resume coverage and whichever analyst is first with the news is going to be pleased .Could HZN be aware of who is reviewing their coverage and what they are going to say ?
 
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18.5¢
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18.5¢ 18.5¢ 17.5¢ $446.6K 2.467M

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Last trade - 16.10pm 02/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
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