I guess the answer is yes.
I would add the money that has spent by AIM before care & maintenance.
However...it is not the answer to resolve our issues. As I understand from the recent presentation the focus for the next 12 - 24 months is pretty straightforward:
a) Assess profitability of Perkoa (underground mining). Find out what the full cost to produce 1 ton of zinc is. Decide if Perkoa should go into care & maintenance or not or assess if Perkoa is in the position to generate cash flow (profit) for BTR and also resolve the issues around working capital with Glencore. Finding and decision probably to be release before end of March.
b Finalize optimized PFS for Kitumba. Explore if there is any interest from which side ever to fund the project - especially within the new parameters (C1, Capex, copper price outlook). Apply for a mining lease mid 2014 the latest. Decide if it makes sense to take forward the project or to wait till the market environment is more favourable.
c) It seems that some kind of exploration is planned around Perkoa but no further exploration is planned at Mumbwa (at least not for the time beeing).
Well you can draw here a best case scenario or a worst case scenario.
In the best case Perkoa is profitable and generates cash flow. Cash that at some point in time can be used for taking forward Kitumba or to finance further exploration at Mumbwa (e.g. Kakozhi). Even better if Kitumba turns out to be interesting even at current copper price level (US$ 2.50-3.00 lb) and somebody is ready to fund the project etc. etc.
In the worst case Perkoa is put on care & maintenance. Then we would need a really se.xy Kitumba PFS and somebody interested in funding the project and go into production. However...BTR then in a rather weak position I guess (without not to much cash left in the bank).
In the really worst case: no cash from Perkoa, only a mediocre PFS from Kitumba, no funding, no production and especially no cash for further exploration at Mumbwa. Then I guess we have a major issue and must hope the copper and zinc price explodes within 12-24 months.
By the way...I have the feeling that with regard to copper price and zinc price the market has over reacted in the last 2-3 days. Let's wait for the next - less distorted (Chinese new year and other) - figures from China and then see what happens.
I think currently there is nothing that we can do. Just wait for Mitch to come with figures and numbers and a decision. Also other small mining companys are struggling...some even in a better position as BTR.
The true picture is the fact that BTR is owning a huge exploration license (Mumbwa) and that this region clearly has an immense potential with regard of large IOCG deposits. Unfortunately Kitumba was not a monster...but at least shows what the potential of the region might be....the grade of historical mines were in the region of 16 % (not the peak but the average....).
So...I think we have to wait and see. Meanwhile I have taken a pretty fatalistic view on the future of BTR. I can not influence it......therefore I try to stay positive and hope for the best.
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