THE TRUE VALUE OF SAYONA

THE TRUE VALUE OF SAYONA...............

I had a huge post prepared a few days back and lost it all when hot copper lost the
plot on my computer and closed unexpectedly.
I will try and reconstruct it as best as I can recollect.

The valuation of Sayona was brought up repeatedly recently during the war with the
downrampers, so I thought I would share some rough calculations with you all.
I will have a crack this and try and give a ballpark figure on the value of Sayona as it stands NOW.
The valuations are in C$, then converted to AU$ using XE.

1. NAL
To buy NAL now, you would have to be looking at a billion. C$400 million was already invested, with SYA
throwing another 100 BILL at it, to get the concentrator refurbed and upgraded.
And this is not just for the sum of the parts, it's paying for the privilege of being able to be producing
within 12 months. Construction, materials, labour, water, green hydro power, environmentals,
permitting, infrastructure, logistics, road, rail, nearby airport, road, rail, personnel who have operated
that plant previously.... etc... etc...
But the most valuable is the time saving......years!!! Imagine starting to build this mine and facility
NOW....Would you.?? And Risk missing the greatest market deficit for lithium we have ever seen?
First mover advantage is what we are talking here people. In a jurisdiction which is government friendly,
poses minimal sovereign risk, and looks set to become the hub of lithium battery and EV production in
North America.
Remember, NAL can operate stand alone. It doesn't have to have Authier ore immediately. As a matter
of fact, Authier ore will not be introduced for a few months after the NAL restart.
Sayona's share C$750 million.

Please note- Although PLL still own 25% of Sayona Quebec, due to the last CR, their holding in Sayona
parent company has fallen to around 14.5%. I can't find any evidence at the moment that they
participated in the last CR. I am sure if they had, the PR team would have made a point of it in the
announcements.

2. Authier
The resource has grown over the years. Valued at 140 mill in 2017 and then in 2019 revised in an official
DFS to 216 million. Then in 2022, with further exploration, the resource further increased. Remember,
these last 2 valuations were when the lithium spot price was heavily depressed.
350 million
Sayona's share C$262.5 million

3. Tansim-
Tough one to value because its not a priority, but what I have seen is encouraging. Great
grades and a decent size resource.
Drilling conducted in 2019 comprising 11 holes for 1,129m resulted in an Exploration Target for the Viau‐
Dallaire prospect of between 5 million and 25 million tonnes, at an estimated grade of 1.2 – 1.3% Li2O.
BTW, Yep, as SB pointed out, Bombesrmad flat out lied with that one.
C$50 million
Sayona’s share 37.5mill

4. Moblan
Well, we just paid US$86 million for 60%, Since then, further exploration has shown outstanding grades,
low strip ratio and an emerging resource.
Great partner and big plans for this project, shared by the industry. Possible resource doubling and
Hydroxide WILL be made there.
For now, let's put a conservative US$130mill on it for our share. With the movements/purchases and
acquisitions in the area recently, I am sure SB will laugh at this valuation, but I am trying to be
conservative, and value as we stand NOW.
C$166mill

5. Lac AlbertIts massive. Next door to Moblan and around 15 times the size, in a known lithium bearing area, with a
large pegmatite running SW-NE through it. Moblan is 433 ha vs 6592 ha for Lac Albert!!! Unexplored,
except for some minor surface work. I think the plan is to support Moblan and the Northern hub, but is
way off in the future. Think 2025/6 on. They’ll prove up Moblan first, then turn their attention to it
C$1mill.

6.JV w/ Morella on WA lithium
Our partnership with Morella was for them to spend 1.5 mill over 3 years. Morella seem to accept this a
suitable outlay for risk/reward.
So, the value of our 49% is
AU$735K
C$670K

7. WA Gold.
Great location, great potential and we have committed to spend 2.7mill for 2022
AU$2.7mill
C$2.46 mill

8. Carbonate Plant at NAL
The bones are there, has been mentioned a few times. Big dollars these days to build a carbonate or
hydroxide refinery. The carbonate plant at NAL could be anywhere between 20-50% built. Maybe
already 200mill tipped in. Expect another 200-300 required for production.
$C200mill

9. Northern hub concentrator and LioH refining
Massive potential and the northern hub will be the one that takes us from a 6-10billion dollar company,
to 15-20+ billion-dollar company. But for now, just and idea…zero intrinsic value.
$0

So, the grand total is C$1,420,130,000
current market cap AU$1,509,000,000
Now let's convert to AUD
= AU$ 1,558,725,026 So, our market cap is very close to our CURRENT intrinsic
value.
Very interesting that……and begs the question, was this our downramper friends’ motive all
along??? I will answer it with as much tact as I can muster………..
Of course, it bloody was!!!!!!

Now let’s add our bank balance which should be in the coffers soon. +AU$210,000,000
So, 1,558,725,026 + 210,000,000=
Grand total- AU$1,768,726,026.
Current intrinsic value. The sum of our parts if we were sold off
SOI x SP= MC
8,200,000,000
THAT MC TRANSLATES TO A 21.57c SP
BTW, closing price on Friday 27/5/2022… 21.0c (with the latest tranche of shares
added)

It’s very conservative and very rough, but it gives you an idea where we are at.
So, our current SP is indicating we are currently valued a little under the sum of our parts ONLY.
Liquidation value….

It DOES NOT consider future revenues and the massive potential that BL is unlocking here.
It DOES NOT consider purchasing NAL and Moblan, at what now is very apparent, were BELOW
bargain basement prices.
It DOES NOT consider the strategic value of Tansim supplementing NAL, or Lac Albert
supplementing Moblan.
It DOES NOT consider the time saved in building an operational mine, Spodumene concentrator
facility and the beginnings of a carbonate plant. Years saved, and with those hundreds of
millions in capital costs, material purchasing, engineering, construction, labour costs and
permitting. At a time when the whole world is suffering from material and labour shortages.
And time is money, particularly when you're trying to enter the market while we are in a lithium
deficit.
It DOES NOT consider the strategic network and alliance that has been built in Quebec, with the
government via IQ. The connections and relationships that could pave the way for future
governmental funding and favourable support. In my opinion, this is one of our strongest
resources.
ETC…….ETC……………ETC…………… ETC…….ETC……………ETC……………

Now, this has taken me some time to put together, and as I mentioned earlier, I lost the first
draft and had to start again.
However, the time spent with this valuation has been time well spent. It has re-affirmed my
belief in the company.

A fellow investor friend of mine advises me to do this as often as you can, daily if possible. Retest your valuation and belief in a company. Look for the weaknesses. Test and re-test and if
you find flaws, factor them in immediately and adjust your holding appropriately.
Buy, sell, rebalance. ...Retest your thesis, factor in new information, particularly the negative
information. Look at micro, look at macro, look at sectors, indicators and yes even the VIX!
He almost has a zero tolerance for loss, and he seems to do well most of the time. Now I don’t
have the time to be as diligent, but He’s retired, so he has both the time and the passion…good on him.

The point here is that I have retested my thesis on this company heavily in the last week.
Absorbing everything I can from the forums, the net, the announcements and the grapevine.
Good and bad….
AND……. The supporting evidence continues to get stronger.

The risk is diminishing

The working capital is growing

Debt does not exist

We are relatively reliant on no one. I almost feel like we don’t even need a DFS/BFS anymore.
I know it has to be done to follow due process and diligence, but when you have the capital to start operations as is and don’t need
funding then.......

And I have never seen Brett, or Sayona as a whole, chase down an objective as hard as they are
with the start of production.at NAL.
The ferocity that they are attacking the production start date with is very
obvious. I didn’t always believe they could hit the Q1 23 target, and thought it would slip to Q2
or Q3, which may still happen, but the sentiment has changed. Their posturing has changed.
It feels as though it has become the #1 target for the company. Planning, expenditure, capital,
hiring…. it's all there and coming together.

So, expect the unexpected with Sayona. They may have missed a lot of deadlines, but this one, THE
CRITICAL one, is the one they just might nail!!!

The VALUE is growing. TRUE VALUE.

The PFS was written as a base case for the CR, to have something to present to the Sophs and
institutions.
Was it deliberately underdone?
Yes, it was as in BL’s latest interview, he states we have robust and solid NPV, IRR and LOM
figures and says-
‘The PFS gives Good reassurance and good confidence, and that's what the market and
shareholders want to see at this point in time, and we did all of that on, quite frankly some
reasonably modest assumptions in terms of plant yields and pricing, which as we move forward
to the DFS have Good scope and potential upside to further improve on those results.’
(Here’s a tip-expect plant yields and SC6 pricing to improve in the DFS)
Was this a smart move?
You bet it was.
Take a good Look at the state of the markets. They are In tatters….
US$7.5 trillion has been wiped from the DOW. 3 trillion more than during Covid.
Everyone is fearful and consolidating. Money is not being thrown freely around and if you need
it in a hurry, you will end up with s sub-par deal.
The markets are in a risk off environment. They want to de-risk, not add risk to their portfolios.

Which says a lot about Sayona, and the belief these new investors have in the company.

The deal, although not optimal, was NOT underwritten, was completed quickly, will be
dispersed in 1 Tranche and really wasn’t bad, considering the macro environment we are
currently in.
I am not sure if we would have had the speed to close this deal, in these conditions
at 28c+. To our detriment, more dilution, but as you will see later, our market cap growth with
still warrant a healthy share price.

SYA are in a hurry now, you can see it.
Get the money and move…move fast.
Money is scarce and to crunch a quick deal was a good outcome.
Stuff the banks, creditors and financiers……. we have our own cash now….and in 9 months we
will start printing more.
Diminishing risk.

Does Brett care that the PFS was average? No. Because he knows the FINAL destination.
Which is-
CARBONATE PRODUCTION AT NAL, ABITIBI HUB
HYDROXIDE PRODUCTION AT MOBLAN, NORTHERN HUB.

The PFS was good enough to get the CR completed. Stuff the pr fallout, the condemnation and
what the market was expecting. In the grand scheme of things its pales in significance...
He knows where we are headed!
The figures in the PFS were GOOD ENOUGH.
1bill NPV, IRR140, LOM 27, 2 years payback.... not bad really. I know other prospective miners
that would kill to have those figures.
Not to market expectation but good enough.
Good enough to get the CR through easily and robust enough to stand on its own, while
allowing scope for the DFS, the main event, to come out and completely eclipse these figures,
later this year.
Brett also gave his reasons for the DFS delay, which is reasonable and valid, I just wished he
simply communicated to us in a non-price sensitive announcement…..uhhhhh….comms
frustration!
Anyway, I have been watching a few old interviews lately of the investing legend Warren Buffet.
I think I offended @wallaby recently when I referred to him as a 90-year-old sociopath. I
probably should have been a little more specific.
A FINANCIAL SOCIOPATH. A DOG WITH A BONE. HE SEES UNDERVALUED ROBUST BUSINESSES
AND HE GOES AFTER THEM...HARD.
He is very good at valuing established bricks and mortar companies. He doesn’t care for crypto
or much tech. It's what he knows and what he has stuck to.
Based in Omaha, he is happy to be away from the fuss of Wall Street.
The white noise is too distracting!
He will value blue chip, longstanding companies, and I mean to the cent, and waits for market
weakness. Sometimes he won't make a purchase for 2 years. He sits and waits patiently, until
one of his targets, mostly due to greater market weakness, is below its INTRINSIC VALUE.
The value of its assets, its infrastructure, its real estate, its assets, and then goes in HARD and crunches a
deal. He looks for VALUE, for a company who has good fundamentals but is trading below that
because of some sector or broader market volatility.
He usually has a decent war chest ready of between 150-200 billion dollars and recently
readjusted his portfolio, selling 10 bill but spending 50 bill, during this weak market. He must
think we are close to the bottom.
And when asked about his investment strategy, he looks for VALUE and buys cheap and sells
high. That’s it. And he says when he tells people they don’t believe him.
‘Is that it?’ they say…..Yep, he smirks. Too boring for Wall Street!!!
Be patient, buy low sell high and that flows into one of his other beauties- ‘Be fearful when
others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful’.
The Oracle of Omaha indeed….
So that’s what I have been trying to do. Look for TRUE VALUE, continually research and test the thesis.
Be patient. ( a particular weakness of mine.)
Wait for market weakness
Buy low (Been here since 1.9c and buying during this volatility, while my portfolio drops day
after day. Scary stuff. But I know, Bull markets will make you money, but bear markets are
when the REAL wealth is created.
Sell high…I haven’t sold a share yet…. not yet…. the ride has just begun.
I don’t need the money yet, so I am good to hold.... but everyone, including me, has a price in
mind for their stock.
So, having said all that, and understanding we are currently at our intrinsic value, the price of
our combined assets, and we are in a period of extreme contraction and market weakness, the
TRUE VALUE of this company comes to the fore.
We continually derisk, have a couple of hundred mill in the bank and really look like we are
going to make it into production Q1 23.
The market in Australia and North America will stand up and take notice.

FUTURE POTENTIAL, PLUS INTRINSIC VALUE.

FUTURE POTENTIAL

SC6 Production within 9 months. Q1 2023
Revenue stream, possible government grant, expansion of Authier/NAL, proving up of Moblan
and Tansim.
As I have previously stated, I don’t know of any lithium producer worldwide sub $AU5 bill
market cap.
Conservatively SP AU$61 cents and with a little FOMO and the broader market
now taking us seriously as a producer, could easily push AU$61c-$1. There are of course other catalysts such as Authier PFS, combined DFS and resource expansion announcements which will also push the SP along.

Please note- After the closing of SYAOC and conversion of options, April 29 2023, we may see a
share consolidation.

Carbonate production within 36 months. 2025
Massive revenue stream multiplier, possible strategic partnership/expansion, Moblan
continuation and completion, Tansim production. This is when we see big revenue, cut the
umbilical cord with Piedmont offtake and really move into the vertically integrated big leagues.
Proving up Lac Albert and expanding resources. Market cap now steadily growing into the
AU$8-15bill range. SP $1.03- 1.83

Northern hub Moblan Hydroxide production 2027 onwards
Propelling us into one of the world’s leading, vertically integrated, refined lithium producers.
Potential to go as high as double our market cap, depending on output. Further strategic
partnerships. Moblan producing and refining LiOh, Lac Albert JORC and close to production.
This could send our market cap anywhere between 16-30billion, when compared to similar
current carbonate and hydroxide producers. SP AU$1.83-3.66

Please note, these calculations are based on 8.2 billion shares with no further dilution. I see this
as a possibility, with revenue streams coming online, financing and strategic
investment/partnerships.

So that’s my take and merely my humble opinion.

Our current share price is at asset value only, with no value added.

Maybe, something that the Oracle would consider buying, if it was a current blue-chip bricks
and mortar company…...and we are very, very far from that.

Not trying to deal out Hopium here, but it's what I truly see as the future of this company.

A multi mine, multi hub, vertically integrated lithium miner and refiner who is world class.
Who will be THE lithium powerhouse of North America, and equally well respected on the global
stage.

Once we get going and start producing revenue, there's no stopping us.
There's still tough road ahead, but I think the really hard work is done.
Some may argue that the NAL purchase has been THE company maker. The defining moment in
time which changed the fortunes of Sayona forever, and the road going forward is a little
bumpy with minor formalities and details, which will be worked out along the way.

Whether you subscribe to that theory or not, it seems to be exactly what is currently unfolding here.
And if we continue along this path, in the grand scheme of things, SC6, carbonate and
hydroxide production are just around the corner.
Just Zoom out, be patient, dont panic and enjoy the ride...

Whatever you guys decide, best of luck.

And please do your own research, study and build your own thesis for this company. I stress, this is a very, very
rough guide and my opinion only. I am happy to be corrected and be shown where I have gone wrong and can
improve things for the better. It's up to you to have conviction in where you invest your money, or the money of
your loved ones.