here you go... reworded for the precious participants on this thread-
I have deintified the downies I was referring to-
I don't think the downward SP pressure is being driven by the new shares that were issued by the CR.
Hopefully they have sticky hands for the bulk of their allocation, although the norm for these instos is to buy a parcel to hold and a parcel to trade. So, I expect to see some future manipulation from these guys, but not just yet.
So for now, they are stuck, like the rest of us, unless they try and manipulate the sp higher, which certainly didn't happen today.
As well as broader market weakness and a squeeze on the lithium sector at large, I have a theory, more a gut feeling that the upcoming pFS for Authier, will be a decent announcement. But not in the traditional sense.
In addition to the aforementioned reasons for the weakness in the SP, I think the big boys are driving down and heavily suppressing the SP further, while accumulating as much as they can BEFORE the Authier pFS is announced to market.
Its very easy, to use current market conditions, particularly in the aftermath of the CR, to drive down the SP, if you have enough shares to play with.
FUD, manipulation, socials, capping, dumping, cross trading to their own multiple accounts, its all at play here, and designed to frustrate and shock you into selling your retail shares. ITS THEIR LAST CHANCE!
And I am NOT insinuating the Authier pFS will be mind blowing, but more that its the piece of the puzzle that may begin the resurrection of the SP and leave these levels behind for ever.
From my perspective Authier is a known quantity.
Size, grade, proximity and proven suitability for a battery grade product. There still remains a possibility for resource upgrades and further upside but for now, lets stay with what we know.
Now this in isolation is robust, but not spectacular. Solid, reliable...a great base to build from.
This pFS, Scheduled for Q2, 2022, SHOULD be released within the next 3 weeks. I say should, because Sayona does not have a great track record at getting announcements out on time.
But when you start connecting the dots, particularly from a conservative finance and institutional perspective, OF THE DOCUMENTED AND STUDIED proven knowns, I think the realisation that Sayona Quebec will unquestionably be, a near term producer, with diminishing risk, becomes apparent.
Diminishing risk-
- Fully financed
- NIL debt
- Multiple resource properties with refining capabilities
- Existing offtakes
- location and jurisdiction
- Governmental support
- High lithium prices for the foreseeable future
- NAL permitting, other than a throuhput refining upgrade to 4200 , and a more acceptable environmental plan for DRY tailings is all that is required. Not mandatory if production is kept at 3800 tpd.
So when the big boys consider all these documented and verified parts of the puzzle coming together, and not in isolation, they too may consider-= The true value of Sayona, and set new SP expectations, where they will have their algos target and hopefully drive the SP to new highs.
- The asset value+
- The production value+
- The Future downstream refinement potential
And there seems to be some corresponding evidence to support this.
- BIG buys in the after market the days last week. Some decent buys this arvo, but nothing as big as last week
- Shorters dramatically reducing and closing their positions. I thought they would continue to climb, particularly since the sp is so depressed, but the percentage shorted is reducing.
- Some mini pumps during the day with decent buys
- A plethora of downrampers, banging home their negative views, actively attacking,antagonising and trying to discredit the LT holders who have been the backbone of the Sayona threads for the last few years.
- In a similar vein, Whenever I see these guys show up, I know I am onto a good thing. The jig is up boys and has been for a long time. Now this has been mentioned by other posters before, and For the people who recognise your MO, you trying SO hard here with your usual BS, is a big BUY signal for me. And I have bought hundreds of thousand of shares in the past couple of weeks., 200k just today. Sticky hands indeed....You think you are scaring people off? Quite the contrary maggots, your efforts are a BUY signal for those in the know. Many thanks!!!These guys here for a reason people, and they are not here to save yo from the evils of Sayona.
- Going sideways on low volume.
So, we will go sideways for a while and probably trade in a set range (say 13-18) for a while, maybe 2-3 weeks , until the Authier pFS is announced.
Then hopefully, that will be the catalyst, for the big boys boys to connect the dots and further derisk the project sufficiently, to warrant an increase in SP.....for the short term anyway. This may be enough to see us back in the ASX200, which should also help things along.
However, I suspect the final piece of the puzzle for these guys, will be the combined Authier/ NAL DFS later in the year, which should take us to all new highs.
So, Dont panic and be patient.
We are in the home stretch to production, and our biggest gain in value is on the horizon, and yet to be realised.
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