the truth about sdl

After reading so may cheer squad posts about SDL over the past month, it has come to a point where enough is enough. Judging by the amount of people that have posted contrary to the cheer squad's rhetoric, people are obviously waking up and smelling the coffee here. But is it really coffee?

True to form, I will keep it real, and post the truth here. Just a few cold hard facts, off the top of my head. I will leave the blue skies and pink elephants to others. Just a few facts to ponder are;

-major delay in project schedule, first ore on train now Q4 2014!

If it keeps getting pushed back at this rate 2016 is likely.

-CAPEX for stage 1 ONLY has blown out to $4.7 BILLION! from $3.6 Billion. That is a blowout of 30%

-CAPEX for stage 2 is estimated at a whopping $3.1 BILLION!!!

-The production upgrade to 50Mtpa did not materialise, so it's at a measely 35Mtpa

-CAPEX STAGE 1 = $131 / ton. Increased from $100 / ton in DFS

-NO MINING PERMIT

-2.7 BILLION shares on issue already!

-arguably the MOST CORRUPT place on earth. Notorious for brown paper bag deals

To top that off, the proposed:

-Port Builder

-Railway builder

-Financier

-Purchaser of the ore

are all the same entity, CHINA!

That is an almost impossible position to bargain from.

When one considers how rife the Corruption is in West Africa, and how deep China's pockets are, I am happy to not be holding SDL. The above highlights how easy it would be for SDL to get gazumped. Chinese & Ccameroony / Congolese officials could easily do a deal shafting SDL. SDL don't even have a mining permit yet;-)


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Now, when we look over the long awaited DFS that came out today, we can see why it was a fizzer;

-CAPEX has blown out to $4.686 BILLION,

but they round it down to $4.6 BILLION. Everyone knows it should be $4.7 BILLION. Very deceptive if you ask me! This will may well be in the TENS OF BILLIONS of DOLLARS very soon at this rate.

-No mention of a FINANCIER.

-No mention of the JVP that so many were alluding to on here.

-No MINING PERMIT granted!



A $1.3 BILLION Market Cap for the above? Please!


AIMHOO, and backed up with facts as usual