COVID VACCINES AREN'T TO BLAME FOR FALLING BIRTHRATES - RMIT FACTCHECK
hard to know what to make of United Australia Party chief and ex-Liberal Party MHR Craig Kelly's continued attempts to make a fool of himself about all things related to covid-19 vaccines beyond the following:
(1) he's succeeding at making a fool of himself, and
(2) don't get your epidemiology from an ex- furniture salesman.
this week in the RMIT FactCheck known as CheckMate, experts refute Kelly's claim that covid vaccines are to blame for a falling birthrate in NSW public hospitals.
the RMIT FactCheck follows.
"A story published in the Sydney Morning Herald detailing a fall in births recorded by NSW public hospitals has been seized upon as evidence that COVID-19 vaccines are to blame.
"As the article explains, the number of these hospital births peaked at roughly 19,100 in the June 2021 quarter before steadily falling to reach 15,700 in the March 2023 quarter, their lowest ebb since 2010.
""Dramatic drop off in births in NSW and globally, since a certain not-so-safe, effective or necessary vaccine was forced upon the elderly, pregnant mums and even children," wrote one Twitter user.
"And United Australia Party national director Craig Kelly tweeted: "The birth data for NSW has finally been released and tragically as expected the number of babies born has plunged as the vaccine was rolled out."
"So, what's it got to do with vaccines?
"Edith Gray, a professor of demography at the Australian National University, told CheckMate that rather than COVID-19 jabs being the cause of falling births, "the opposite is likely".
""[W]hen the vaccine started to become available [in 2021] and lockdowns stopped there was an increase in births," she said.
"Peter McDonald, a professor of demography at the University of Melbourne, told CheckMate that even if a specific event had led to a fall in births, there was "no direct evidence" to say it was the result of vaccines.
"Notably, both experts said the available data was incomplete and subject to change, meaning more information was needed before conclusions could be drawn about what, if anything, was happening in NSW.
""There is great variability in births over short time periods, and these data only account for births in public hospitals," Professor Gray said. "While they are useful as an indication of trends, they really need to be treated with caution."
"Professor McDonald, meanwhile, said processing lags meant the number of births registered by hospitals or registrars was "not a reliable estimate" of births, with monthly and quarterly data more prone to errors.
"Notwithstanding these caveats, annual data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that the number of births registered in NSW was only 0.8 per cent lower in 2022 than in 2019, the year before the pandemic.
"By contrast, Queensland and South Australia recorded increases of 1.7 and 2.4 per cent while Western Australia saw a drop of 5.9 per cent. That's despite all states recording similarly high first-dose vaccination rates by the end of 2021.
"But if NSW is indeed experiencing a sizable decline in births, there are plenty of reasons to consider other than vaccines.
"According to Professor McDonald, a "new trend" in global fertility rates began from around 2016, which has seen rates in many countries falling below replacement levels.
"Australia's fertility rate was also trending down well before COVID-19 vaccines arrived, with that trend expected to continue until the early 2030s.
"In the shorter term, though, Professor McDonald said it was "very difficult" to interpret what was happening, because "events [such as the pandemic] come along and people delay births", which can have a "quite substantial" effect on the numbers.These types of delayed decisions have long been linked to times of economic uncertainty, both experts told CheckMate.
""All quality research points to the same issues: in times of uncertainty or disruption, fertility tends to decline," Professor Gray said. "We saw this at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic when fertility declined, only to be followed by a small boom as people caught up with births [that had been] delayed."
"Indeed, there were more births registered in 2021 than in each of the four years to 2020, according to the ABS data. This may be one factor playing into the 2022 numbers.
"As Professor McDonland explained: "Births are usually two or three years apart. So, if a lot of them occurred at once, then, for the next two or three years, you won't get quite so many."
"The pandemic-era fertility pattern — of a bust in 2020, a boom in 2021 then a "downturn" in 2022 — has been observed in a number of other high-income countries.
"The authors of that study posit three possible reasons, including: a return to pre-pandemic fertility trends, the resumption of busier life after the easing of COVID-19 restrictions and the fear of vaccine side-effects that may cause some people to delay pregnancy.
"Professor Gray pointed out, however, that fertility "tends to be associated with local conditions, so if we are seeing a decline in NSW, it may be that the conditions there are having a larger impact on childbearing".
"One such explanation offered by Professor McDonald was the cost of housing. On that point, ABS data shows that median house prices are higher in NSW than any other state.
"CheckMate has previously addressed claims about falling births in Australia and Germany, along with unsubstantiated claims linking COVID-19 jabs to miscarriage.
"The Australian government makes clear that vaccines approved for use in Australia do not cause infertility, while the Royal Australian College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists advises that they are safe and effective for pregnant women."
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