Hi toly - I essentially agree with most of your comment - I think few here would not disagree with the unique position Lynas has created quietly over the past 6 years - however, while all this is good - you cannot escape the fact that they are operating within an unstable 3rd world backdrop known as Malaysia. Regardless of all the virtues you shower on Lynas, the fact is they need to endure this environment for at least another 4 years. At any time, life for Lynas could change without warning - unfortunately this is just a fact!
I think the hardest thing over the last few weeks prior to the conclusion of this drawn out ordeal was figuring on where Lynas might trade price wise with a positive conclusion?:
A 3 or 4 year licence renewal without any added conditions would have seen it sailing up to say $3.30, based on a price of around $2.95 prior to this latest 12 month licence fiasco.
A 3 year licence with some extra conditions would still be quite acceptable.
A 6 month licence extension with stringent qualification - just doesn't get the adrenalin pumping - investors are rightly tired of all this crap - and know only all to well that things can change in the blink of an eye.
So when your friend asks about share price - I think it is trading in a risk-averse pattern and quite rightly so.
Get through this next 6 month period with a new 3 year or 4 year licence renewal and then some sort of long term confidence will prevail.
For those convinced that no more curve balls are coming - Wow! what an opportune time to accumulate for the future.
Good luck to all - cheers Jake
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