I'd like to think I could forecast when volumes and margins are sufficiently restored. But I have no confidence in my forecasts. The IPO was way wrong on forecasts as well, as were many brokers. So they don't know either.
For me, I will focus on leading indicators to make a judgement (ship capacity utilization, volumes in general and especially to anticipated large markets such as China). We know that Wellard is highly leveraged to cattle price and supply, so profit can increase significantly when it occurs. Key risks, for me given the need to protect capital on this one, are still debt, cattle supply, cattle demand, AUD and fuel price.
With a loss in 1st half 18FY and anticipated profit in 2nd half 18FY, Wellard will be lucky to be neutral NPAT. So SP may lift to around net asset value (say 22c to 24c). Wellard should return to positive NPAT by 2019 all being well with debt control, cattle supply and margins, China penetration and increased competition from Gina's operation. SP could raise to 40c to 50c. The an assessment of positive leading indicators, I would probably be accepting of a re-entry of 25c to 28c.
WLD Price at posting:
17.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
