WLD 2.99% 6.5¢ wellard limited

The Turnaround has Begun, page-8

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    Price : Sales (FY17 actual) 0.2x
    Price : IPO EPS (FY18) 1.3x (adjusted for dilution)


    Price : Tangible Book Equity 0.7x

    Intangible Assets:
    - Global platform and customer base
    - 160 employees
    - Largest market share in Australia
    - Newest / most efficient fleet in the world
    - Licences
    - Cost of building new ships is way higher than WLD's depreciated / impaired accounting values
    - High barriers to entry
    - Capacity to sustain relatively high debt levels at cheap cost (due to tangible ship base and liquid inventory)

    Macro Tailwinds:
    - Continued growth of beef consumption globally (especially Asia)
    - Cost of feeding & processing materially cheaper in Asia than Australia - China channels / facilities just beginning to open
    - AUS live cattle prices (A$3 / Kg) now only 80% of US prices and 60% of China prices (A$5 / Kg)
    - AUS prices to fall further given herd has been rebuilt and Northern Australia is moving back into drought
    - Buffalo trade into Indonesia not sustainable (disease, fraud / substitution, hurting domestic beef production)
    - Shipping capacity utilisation tightening - exit of competitors / growth markets (China, Turkey) involve larger cattle over greater distances
 
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