That is a very good point, a constant battle between the bulls and bears. At each pivot point there will always be questions like, is this a head fake or the control is sustaining? Nobody can see on the right side of the chart with any clarity regardless of whatever fundamental they have absorbed. A lot can be gleen from the rear view mirror ie charts, to make projections of the future. This is the only tool anyone has to make projections or guesstimate. To a lot of uninformed chart user, this is akin to 'tea leaves or fortune telling' mockery but I use it to manage trades/investments and the worthiness of taking a position or clearing out. Only a fool believes that they can accurately project the future by using the plethora of techniques ranging from Fib extension to more sophisticated EW/Harmonic patterns and the desperate astro trading strategies!
Simply put I know nothing and will probably know nothing going forward despite what my peers have been preaching whether doom or boom! All I know is if my sentiment is correct I will manage my exposure or add/clear out when the time comes. The lesson is that in 2012 I was clearly very wrong on the state of the global economy.
I fell into the simplistic 'elevated market with money printing and no real recovery through inflation measure, Chinese ghost cities, and what ever kitchen sink fundamentals I can come out with' sentiment and missed the participation for another 3 years. In short I was just 'looking' at my strong retail bias of picking tops and bottoms and ignored what was printed on a humble chart.
Here we are today and I am as unsure as I was back in 2012 but the constant is the fear of market collapse! Well the latter sentiment has been wiped away from my fear because it just creates uncertainty daily. If my portfolio is anything to go by then I have made the right decision and hedge an eachway bet. Granted a lot with much higher risks are minting the goldies for many months and it is payoff for timing the market and taking bigger risks. So the lesson here is not about right or wrong as some are clearly indulging deeply in a battle of never ending debate.
So the hypothetical is for instance, those who jumped on recently in gold stocks, made a few baggers then jump off and timed a correction or sell off in gold in the direction of the gold bear trend would have been highly profitable but completely wrong in the trend reversal. This is a much better camp than the those who profess they know a lot and sat on the sidelines, missed the opportunities and can only use the expression 'it is a trap or sucker rally' to make them feel superior of their skills.
Another lesson is if you want to be right than stay in the world of academia or come back to revisit the constant hindsight to prove your point. Fortune favors the brave but of course not the gut feel stupidity.
