Relative economic reliance on imports and/or exports is not necessarily a key recession driver.
There will be multiple drivers of the US recession. First among the drivers will be people staying at home and remaining extremely frugal due to the uncertainly of the times.
The maths of the virus economic impact are binomial. Either COVID is endemic in a region or it isn't.
Also the average age of a US citizen is 38 years and there is a huge layers of comorbidities amongst the working poor. Many illnesses go untreated or poorly treated because required medicines are unaffordable. The US demographic therefore remains at high risk when it comes to COVID-19.
