FML 0.00% 15.5¢ focus minerals ltd

I was surprised to see what I said three years ago has...

  1. SNM
    35 Posts.
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    I was surprised to see what I said three years ago has re-emerged, like a phoenix from the ashes. For me, the comparison is what would have happened had Shandong not invested. Simply put, FML would have gone out backwards. What has happened to Shandong's money since they bought a stake of around 50%? It seems to me there are three important points that should be made. First, the tenements have been rationalised so they are 100% owned. Secondly, the money enabled to company to stay afloat until the gold price went up. Thirdly, it enabled exploration to increase the reserves and resources.

    What Shandong is doing is that they have, for some time, said they are going to do: make FML a sustainable, long-term gold producer on a better cost basis than applied before the shutdown. I suspect there is some friction because Shandong has been taking a long-term view and that does not please short-term investors. As a result, anyone who bought into FML to "make a quick buck" will be disappointed. But those who bought FML shares on the basis that the success of this company was a question of when, not if, will be smiling.

    Put succinctly, the minus is they have taken time but the plus is that they are putting the company on a much sounder footing than it ever has been. Added to that is the bonus that they are doing it at a time when the price of gold is higher and looking like it will go even higher.

    Yes, there have been disappointment, such as when they said they would resume operations after getting a PFS for Coolgardie then (a) didn't restart, and (b) tried to sell Coolgardie. There was also the frustration of the carpetbaggers who tried to steal the tenements. While we cannot change to past, we can now see the future were (1) Coolgardie restarts, (2) cash inflow from Coolgardie funds a restart at Laverton, (3) initial operations are likely to be at least 50,000 oz pa at each site, (4) the Laverton operations will initially be shallow - within 200 metres of the surface - which should result in a favourable AISC.

    The $64 question now is how they intend to fund a restart at Coolgardie but they should be able to repay the startup costs within a year if they wish although they would probably want to use as much of the cash flow from Coolgardie as they can to restart operations at Laverton.

    Plus, do not overlook the fact that Shandong has a lot of experience and FML shareholders get the benefit of that experience which is something many others ASX listed companies do not have. Also note that the FML board is chaired by someone who is very senior on the "corporate ladder" at Shandong - FML has not been give a low-level employee to chair the Board.

    So, in short, I stand by what I said three years ago and what was a case of "when, not if?" has become a question of "how soon?". Or, by reference to the ugly duckling analogy, I see some feathers being shed!
 
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