The Upcoming HY Report, page-240

I think many of you are underestimating just how bad the upcoming report is going to be.

Many of you have been continuously attributing the fall in share price to manipulation, even when it was much higher. Then came a downgrade. Oh, and another. The market in its collective wisdom is generally on the ball these days with so many data points available to market participants to gauge how a business is performing.

At the end of the day, the share price is a reflection of the underlying fundamentals of the business, which have significantly deteriorated over the last 6+ months.

It's not just the daigou channel that is affected. The CBEC channel, which the daigou play a large role in feeding into this channel, is being heavily impacted. Both of these channels have been torched It's yet to be seen whether daigou return once international resumes and/or whether Chinese consumer behaviour will return. There is quite a bit of literature stating that Chinese consumer behaviour is shifting and that this shift in behaviour may be permanent. Would be interesting to get some perspective from daigou and Chinese on this matter rather than people in their armchair flippantly saying daigou will return when international travel resumes.

My bet is that they will reduce (or pull) FY guidance yet again, citing a continued deterioration in sales below expectations. The share price will drop to $8 and a dead cat bounce to $9.