The issue with that part of the report is that it's point in...

The issue with that part of the report is that it's point in time. FY18 +/-10% in price meant a +/-$62m in pre-tax profit. FY17 it was +/-$92m for the same price move. So to get an idea on current sensitivity, you need to model to account for the key inputs that evolve over time being price, discount rates and expected volumes shipped (note MIN has 2H skew to total tonnes shipped). Smaller influences are FX rates and inventories.

MIN's delta has 3 main levers. MIN exited FY18 with discount of ~29%, which for 1H19 was most likely well over 30% until around November and a 62% effective price of $USD64/t. 1H19 will probably show a small loss again but since the IO market boomed in December, 62% is up ~40% to high USD80/t range and the 58% is up around 75% to ~USD70/t. Implied discount on benchmark prices of 62% and 58% is around 23%. So for MIN, if 62% price is up 40% with discount sub 30% again the delta is double leveraged (price and quality). The main risk is tonnes so assuming no other issues at Kooly, 6.5mt of the guided 10.5Mt comes in 2H19. This adds a third lever to the detla as more total FY19 production is skewed to sell in the higher price period. An extra swing factor is how hard MIN move inventories they have built up, which is all fines. What is not quite clear is cost side where FY18 implied an average all in cash cost of A$64/t.

On my rough calcs, I have IO business generating EBITDA loss of between -$10m to -$15m in 1H19 (wouldn't be surprised if its a it worse). For 2H19, I have EBITDA of ~$99m if you assume an average 62% price of USD75/t and 25% discount with AUD of 0.71 on 6.5Mt. All assumes cost of A$64/t.

If I did my back-solving half right, the AGM guidance pretty much assumed zero or negative contribution from IO. Mid-point guidance is $300m EBITDA. if IO is on track to contribute EBITDA ~$86m for FY19 instead of zero or less, this represents a potential to lift guidance of up to ~28%. Question is, how much of this is priced in?

So to get the SP going up in any large scope, the expectation to do it would be for an uplift in guidance from MIN at the result tomorrow. However, I'm not sure how forthcoming that will be if MIN want to remain conservative.