The Upside to MYD

This is a stock I bought into after the IPO and clearly lost money as did lots of other people, however after reviewing again at these prices I've happily doubled down and here is why:

1. Have ordered a product and it exceeded my expectations and arrived several days early.

2. This is an incredibly simply business to value:
- Forecast GTV, then NTV as a ratio of GTV is circa 90% then the NTV Take being circa 16%.
- Or simply revenue is circa 14.5% of GTV.
- What's impressive is the NTV take is also improving suggesting their bargaining power is growing.

3. Cashflow
- Current Annualized Revenue from third party - GTV $360M (Nov sales x 12) x 0.9 x 0.16 = ~$50m
- Add into this the private label of $1.7m per month in Nov growing 71% MOM with targeted higher margin ~30%.
- 12 Months of the current growth rates sustained quickly pushes this puppy into $100m per annum revenue territory.

Their cost base is low on account of minimal warehousing except for their private label. I see advertising as the big cost increase but would be disappointed to see their total costs increasing to more than $50m per annum in the next 2 years (FY20 was $15m).

This company could be on a quick trajectory to an annualized EBITDA of $50m a year within 12 months if it sustains its growth rates. Apply comparable ratios to that and the market cap suggests lots of juicy upside.

I'll be super excited to see if the record $30m GTV achieved in Nov is a function of sustained growth of a short term bump due to Black Friday etc, however longer term upside remains for a structural shift as more and more customers use MYD and purchase online following the Covid trends.

Interested in your thoughts, as always DYOR.
Cheers!