the upside

Why can't we look at the upside? Discussion shouldn't be limited to nailing revenue streams with painful exactitude, leaving out any flexibility which corresponds with reality.

Let's look at what another company has achieved on the ASX where analysts and the public understand the business model.

Blackmores. BKL hit $200 on the ASX this week but dropped back due to profit taking. Have a look at the 12 month chart. BKL was around $25 in August 2014.

Now before prolific posters and 'value investors' like madamswer shout irrelevance, let's take a closer look. After all, madamswer has cited CBA and WOW as appropriate comparisons.

Blackmores and Bega Cheese have announced a JV to market infant formula into China. This coincides with the relaxation of the one-child policy in China. First products to hit the market in early 2016.

The shares of BKL have jumped on the blue sky of this. It's a question of joining the dots. Sales of vitamins to China showed a jump in profits. Asia pacific prudential analyst Gordon Anderson says if the first quarter profits are extrapolated over the full year then annual profits are likely to be up to 40% higher than expected.

Now MSB has the aGVHD product hitting the market in Japan, and then in the USA. Plus we have the CEO stating that the revenue involved in Japan will be significantly higher than predicted. Which means negotiations with the authorities about reimbursements are going extremely well. First Japan, then the USA. Plus, we have fast tracking of the stage 3 candidates into the US market.

A bit of logic is needed here on the so called value investing. We should wait until the amounts are quantified. By that logic we should wait until BKL goes to $200, or let's say MSB goes to $100 and THEN buy....?

Surely there's another way.

BTW with a stable of over 600 patents, and a lot of applications in the pipeline, and no negative anns on the science, MSB has a lot of spare capacity and is capable of going to go higher than $100 IMO. Especially when it is being listed in a sophisticated market like the USA and analysts and investors are likely to understand the business model.