Weekly data and thoughts..Please note that all my views are for...

Weekly data and thoughts.
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Please note that all my views are for short-term only, and I could be wrong, so please dyor.
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.Uranium Sector Overview-
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From a weekly perspective, BOE unfortunately had a moderate drop. Moved from 395 to 372. Volume usual, in fact lower than last week, so no strong indicator there. It drop this week was average, around 6%. Now the drop from the high of 416 to 369 is now over 11%. Crucially it lost its very good support of 380, though not very far away.
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Also good to see that shorts are decreasing. Though its still very, very high, but relatively a small drop. Good from the trend perspective.
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Last week I had written that I had taken some off the table. I was calling out that the first number to play is around 410. I played around there. I bought one third on Friday at average 371, exactly near where we closed. A lot of play happened around the 370/375 level, hence I picked my first lot. Rest I will see how it and sector moves.
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Key Numbers to watch?
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If it goes to plan, then we may see higher prices. These are the numbers I feel could be in play -
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410 - First level, very good chance of that happening (ACHIEVED, reached 411, 413, 416 on 3 separate days)
432 - Second level, reasonable chance,
500+ - There are no key numbers between 430 to 600, so anything can happen.
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If things don't go to plan, it needs to hold I wrote last week that if 380 does not hold, no major support till 335 (+/-), so I was hoping it may not go there. But if U sector is in decline, CCJ is in decline, that number may come into play.
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Review of 2 statements I made last week?
The first statement was around CYCLE 1 2025 (details in my post in 2nd May), and at this stage I felt we are on track of making a top between end May and mid June, something I have been saying for months now. Although there has been a pullback, but I still feel odds are not bad for that to happen. .
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Second statement I made was that this week we may see some pullback. I had expected that US markets will start that pullback on Tuesday. But we had a macro event. Trump and China. General market rallied like anything. SP 500 wiped away all losses of 2025. In this macro scenario, it generally helps most stocks. It helped U sector and U stocks too. So we went further up. But by Thursday US U stocks started declining. ASX U stocks followed on Friday. So its played out in line with what I was saying, with a slight delay. So my theory that will be a pullback, before the next leg, is in play now.
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Review of KEY indicators?
Lets look at 3 key indicators that provide market direction for short term, same as I have been doing for last few weeks -
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• CCJ - Gained around 1% for the week, moved from 50.73 to 51.27, so now 4 weeks of gain, crucially above 50
• BOE/PDN - BOE lost 6% for the week and PDN lost 7% of the week - Had a great run and this pullback on expected lines, for now
• Spot Futures - had a small gain this week and now sitting on 71.60, last week 70.25, so gain of around 2%, small, but above psychological 70

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So what are the numbers telling? Last week I wrote that we are on an ascendancy, but we will have a pullback before the next leg. I feel that pullback is happening. Many ASX U stocks are now around 10 to 15% down from their recent high of this cycle. CCJ has comedown around 5% from its high. Spot is holding and inching up, keeping the theory alive of a top in around 2 to 4 weeks time. As As always, I could be wrong in all my assessments, so please dyor.

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Is there a pattern in this rise? As I wrote last week, we seem to be in Cycle 1 2025 (details of cycle in post of 2nd May). Exactly one year back, CCJ was rising and it made 53.38. This week CCJ made 53.48. So more or less following the pattern. Last time it went on to do a new 52 week high of 56.24. This time, our current high is 62.55. So much further away. The question is - Will it scale it or not? Not sure. I feel for CCJ to get over 62.55, we may need a strong macro help (eg general markets on rampage) or a U event (Geo-political or Economic - more likely than technical) or Spot price to go on a tangent (like when it went to 106). Best not to assume but to play price action. What I mean is that if a topping seems to be looking like happening, then good to be aware that it may pull us much down based on previous patterns and accordingly action. Otherwise keep going on. Who knows, we may already have topped, though odds not great for that.
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Personally, As I wrote last week, I am very deep into U play currently. I am playing for the pattern of Cycle 1 2025, for more than couple of months. Last week I wrote I had taken some off the table and had provided two reasons - de-risking with profit and expecting a pullback. I have started buying those I sold but one-third at this stage, waiting to see how it plays out.
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So what may happen next week? CCJ along with all other U stocks are still in a rampage looking at medium term. Short term a small pullback and back test of numbers is happening - as some like to call, a consolidation phase. Last week I wrote that in Cycle 2024, this pullback for CCJ was 4 to 5%. CCJ in last 2 days did a pullback around 5% from its high to low of now. So does it mean pullback is done? Not sure. I feel ASX U stocks may be tentative on Monday. Will also depend on general markets, macro conditions. Though in last 2 days, general markets was still going up, but U stocks started declining, against the general market trend, but playing to the pattern I have been expecting. So its not easy to predict. But one thing I feel may happen. If CCJ continues its decline, and finishes below 50, it will drag most U stocks down, to levels of 20 to 30% from their recent high. Lets hope it doesn't play that way. Overall medium trend, odds are still good in another rise in next few weeks, but its odds, no guarantee. The first thing we now want to see is for the pullback phase to get over. Lets hope it happens soon. All the best.
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Here is the Figures for the Week:.
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