The Uranium Bull is well and alive, page-1785

Weekly data and thoughts.
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Please note that all my views are for short-term only, and I could be wrong, so please dyor.
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.Uranium Sector Overview-
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From a weekly perspective, BOE had a moderate gain of around 7%. Moved from 372 to 398. Last week it had fell from 395 to 372, so clawed back the loss, and a bit. In between, it also made a trip to 348. Volume usual, no marked difference to other weeks, except a bigger one on the rally on Friday. It also recovered back to 406. So well on track now to play the next leg.
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Shorts are now under 22%, so there has been a drop of 4% recently. Its a good sign. 6 big ASX U stocks are still among top 20 shorted stocks on ASX, which doesn't make sense with what's happening in the industry. It won't be easy. Those shorters are seasoned and will not give without a fight, also have lot of resources. The biggest driver would be share price. If macro goes on improving, and if they want to exit, then the issue. But U sector goes in cycles. I have been writing about cycles, every week I write. We are in CYCLE 1 2025. Based on pattern, we top and then we come down. And sometimes we come down big. If shorters play that game, they may not exit all, but wait for topping to happen, and then push down hard. Its possible, so not to be ruled out. But if we keep going or hold our gains, then big squeeze could come.
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Personally have bought back what I had sold. 2 week back I wrote that I had taken some of the table to de-risk and also thinking a pullback may happen. Last week I had written I had bought back one third at 371. Rest I got at 352, overall around 358. So it was around 15% saving on the portion I got out, not much, but sometimes everything counts. Its risky, so won't recommend in a bullish play, but the pattern was playing good so took the risk.
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Key Numbers to watch for stock share price?
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If it goes to plan, then we may see higher prices. These are the numbers I feel could be in play -
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410 - First level, very good chance of that happening (ACHIEVED, reached 411, 413, 416 on 3 separate days)
432 - Second level, reasonable chance,
500+ - There are no key numbers between 430 to 600, so anything can happen.
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If things don't go to plan, it needs to hold around 370 and then 350 - they acted as key zones in the pullback.
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Review of 2 statements I have been making for some time?
The first statement was around CYCLE 1 2025 (details in my post in 2nd May), and at this stage I felt we are on track of making a top between end May and mid June, something I have been saying for months now. There was a pullback recently, but that was part of the pattern. I had written last week that though we are having pullback, odds of topping still remain very good. With what has happened this week, especially Friday trading both on ASX and US, the odds have considerably increased now. Please note that the timeline I mention is more like a guideline rather than set in stone. There are so many factors, macro U, general markets, Mr Trump, end of financial year tax sell, etc. So its rough. But on Monday we reach last week of May, so most stocks should make highs of this current phase of CYCLE 1 2025. So in that perspective , topping theory remains that we make a high during this time. The big question, will we stop, like previous years, or keep on going to make much higher highs. Best is not to assume, but follow price action.
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Second statement is related to pullback. Last week I wrote we are in the pullback phase. That phase continued this week. Most U stocks fell average 15/20% from their recent highs. Which is in line with what I have been writing. I was very sure of 10% fall, and reasonably sure that it would not fall below 20%. All the numbers I had provided was based on that logic. For many U stocks, it played near perfect, if we consider margin of error. But Friday trade has now signalled, very strongly, that the pullback is now over. We are back on uptrend. Very good chance of scaling new highs of this phase. Who knows if the sentiment is strong, we could see all time highs (or 52 week highs) for some U stocks.
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Review of KEY indicators?
Lets look at 3 key indicators that provide market direction for short term, same as I have been doing for last few weeks -
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• CCJ - Gained around 15% for the week, moved from 51.27 to 58.69, with very big gain on Friday, one of the biggest single day gain of recent times. UEC gained 25%, UUUU 20%, even ETFs URNM/URA etc double digit gains. Also crucially CCJ above 55, but hold yet to be confirmed
• BOE/PDN - BOE gained 7% for the week and PDN lost 2% of the week - Hopefully Monday will wipe out all the recent pullback
• Spot Futures - nearly flat for the week and now sitting on 71.55, last week 71.60, but above psychological 70

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So what are the numbers telling? The pullback is now over. Friday was confirmation. CCJ scaled 55, and also 1 year back high of 56.25. Next target 62.55 which is less than 7% from here. So odds are very good that CCJ will make a new high above 62.55. It should translate to whole sector in good spirits. Most will do well, some more than others.

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Is there a pattern in this rise? As I have been writing last few weeks, we seem to be in Cycle 1 2025 (details of cycle in post of 2nd May). Last few years we have had a pattern where we do a topping around this time. Many feel that this time the topping may not be like previous years - like a decent drop from the top. Rather small drop and then plateauing. Its possible. Every year conditions are different. U macro from supply demand is getting closer towards some supply squeeze, although there are no clear data available to firmly believe that. But based on available data, demand is strong and going up. What we don't know is the secondary supply. How much is there? How long can it service the utility before they become nervous? With US signing up for nuclear including SMRs, the demand should go up. Downside is that whole U industry is very small, not even close to 1 big tech company. So can be easily played. Hence we see volatility and all these cycles. Stocks would gain 100% or even more, and then give away, sometimes all the gains. But lets hope this time its different. At least the pattern mirroring a rise during this period is happening - so lets take that positive first.
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Personally, As I wrote last week, I am very deep into U play currently. I am playing for the pattern of Cycle 1 2025, for more than couple of months. 2 week back I wrote I took some off the table to de-risk and more importantly I felt a pullback may happen. I had bought back one third last week. This week I bought back all, and more after exiting a few other stocks. Have taken a punt, lets see what's in store.
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So what may happen next week? ASX U stocks should have a bright start on Monday on the back of big US night of U. General markets had a moderate to big red on Friday, still U sector ignored it. Lets hope the general markets doesn't drop much, otherwise we will not be immune to it. US markets are closed on Monday. So ASX U stocks will have 2 days of trading before US markets play. Canada is open, so some may trade there to give an indication. There is a chance of slight volatility, a spike and then some tempering. By Tuesday arvo there might be some hesitancy. But lets hope by that time we have notched up a few steps. Spot futures is nearly flat. A boost there towards 80 would be very bullish in these macro conditions. It won't take much to push that as its not very heavily traded, its possible some make an attempt to get a bigger top of this cycle. Small and mid caps are still lagging in comparison to big U stocks, lets hope that discrepancy also goes away and all make merry. Overall things looking good but the job is not yet done. So lets hope we continue on this path. All the best.
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Here is the Figures for the Week:.
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