The Uranium Bull is well and alive, page-1837

Looks like CCJ may want to another retest before going higher.
.
In 2 trading days CCJ gained nearly 20%, moved from 52 level to 62 level, so maybe some consolidation.
.
Yesterday CCJ came very close to 52 week high of 62.55. Reached 62.27. I was thinking, like all previous years it will do another new high. So a bit surprising why it stopped on 62.27 yesterday. General markets were great as well.
.
I was just thinking of all possibilities of short-term what may happen. In fact I thought about it in morning itself to play today. There is no scientific reasoning, more gut feel, etc, so I could be wrong and hence dyor. For those playing long, which most are here, it may not matter at all whatever happens in short term, so can ignore my post.
.
First is, this year it may not make a new high, and yesterday's 62.27 remains the high of this cycle. Possible, and odds I feel on lower side of that happening, maybe 25%
.
Second, it does a quick jump soon, within a short period, before falling much, and then does a new high above 62.55. After that how high it goes before we make a top, would depend on number of factors which we could analyse once that situation arises. Here also odds on lower side, maybe 25%. Spot price has inched to 72, so that is supporting this scenario.
.
Third is that it does a back test of around 55/56, number in my mind is 56.24 which was a high from earlier cycle. Then comes back and goes to do a new high above 62.55. A number which I had written earlier in my posts, couple of months back, was high 60s for this cycle. I feel odds are even for this to happen, say 50%.
.
My gut feel is that third scenario may play out. I thought it may be good as well. Its better to consolidate and then move higher. Otherwise when it comes down, the movement down can be big as well. Like we did in early 50s, lot of churn happened around 2 weeks before the big jump from 52 to 62. So mid to high 50s before next big leg. Hopefully. Personally, I am playing for this odds, but will not be surprised with either of two scenario and am prepared for both. Tonight may not confirm the play, as it could linger with 1 to 2% +/-, but lets see. Overall trend is still strongly an uptrend, so lets hope it continues. All the best.
.