What a ride, for most, especially last 2/3 months.
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For those who read my posts, I had been anticipating this type of move for more than around 3 months and have been writing. There are always odds of happening and there is no guarantee. But to see it actually happen, its a big thing, even though we may take it for granted now.
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I have been very transparent when I have been buying, when selling, etc. Not sure why, but I feel, it may help someone, even one. Many times I have been wrong, but sometimes right as well. Like most of us, so nothing different. So I write, usually at the time, rather than later.
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Reason I am writing today, instead of usual weekend, is around same transparency. I played this week and wanted to share. There is a big night tonight, and I could have waited before writing, because I sincerely thought I may look like a fool after this post and U stocks go ballistic tonight. But better to be honest than genius.
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This week I got out of around 80% of my U stocks. I know it may shock a few, because many may feel, its just the beginning of a big one. So I understand I may have got it wrong. But in all my writing, I have been very clear that I write for short-term play (weeks to few months). I know most over here are long term, and some very long term. So my posts may not be for them. Time to stop reading further for them.
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So why did I sell 80% of my U stocks when we are in absolute boom stage? Tonight is a big night. Sprott got $200m to buy. Spot price can get over 80 in short term. First big boom we got in 2021 was when Sprott was buying. It was a big boom and I was playing all thru. Many had thought that the big boom we got that time was solely around Sprott. There may be some truth in it. This is the second innings - Sprott has been buying in between last few years, but in terms of making a big impact on U sector, I feel this may the second one. Or maybe not. I could have waited for this to play out. But blame me that I may be a slight contrarian. Few months back I was writing about this June play. U sector was in very bad shape. I was writing this is the time to buy, with good chances of a decent gain by June. And luckily, it did happen. So I still attribute most of that to luck, because we never know what's going to happen.
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So coming back why I sold in such a hot market?
- First Reason - Just over 2 months back, BOE reached 205. Just around a month back, it was toying and trying to hold 350. This week it reached 475. If 2 months back someone was told it will gain over 130% in just couple of months, most may have said I will take it. I had also thought like that. Because I have a short-term mind play, maybe I took it because of that.
- Second Reason - In all my writings for last few months, I have had a consistent narrative - that U sector may top by mid-June (+/-). This is based on previous patters. U sector is very volatile and goes thru these random ups and downs, bottom line is, it does go thru the ups and downs. I have seen it for 4 years. U stocks will double and more, and give it all away. This time looks slightly different. I had option - check whether this time is different, or play like previous years. It was a 50/50 thing, I decided to follow the pattern - I could be really wrong.
- Third Reason - Every year at this time I try to pick up some stocks which may be in distress due to tax selling. Some years I do that, other times I miss. I decided I will do it this year. Hence needed some coins for that. So freed up some doe from winners. Again, a personal choice, may not be right.
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I will write more on the weekend after tonight's play in US. To be honest, U sector is looking as strong as it has been for last few years. Except the Spot price. Over a year back it was 106, currently mid 70s, but better than early 60s it reached couple of months back.
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CCJ is my barometer. Till now it has given no strong indication that I needed to get out. After making a new 52 week high above 62.55, its going from strength to strength. Last few days a finish in 69s. A high of 71.31. Normally I expect CCJ to drop closer towards 10% (last 2 times was around 8%) before the next leg. Till now around 4%. It can still not respect previous pattern and can go higher, but I feel it may want to. Based on previous plays. So a big play tonight. For doing the pullback, it needs to get towards 65. But it may not do so. I want to see what happens before I play. Happy to lose a bit and reduce my risk for that.
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So what may happen tonight? Every U punter believes that tonight may be a big night for the sector. CCJ going from strength to strength. U macro narrative improving every week. Then the Sprott buying. The X factor. Which can really put a rocket to the share price of U stocks. So all the ingredients point to a very positive play. If it happens positively, I will buy back most in the next few days, no regrets, its been a good ride. So I hope for all those holding, we get a big one. All the best.
(20min delay)