The Uranium Bull is well and alive, page-52

ASX 200 mining share Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE) has taken a sharp dive in the past three months or so, dropping almost 50% in that time.

Winding back to May 20, shares in the uranium miner were fetching $5.86 apiece before taking a turn south and selling off sharply.

They are swapping hands at $2.98 per share at the time of writing, down 27% in the past month alone.

The big question on investors' minds now is, can this ASX 200 mining share bounce back?

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Why is this ASX 200 share down?

Boss Energy is in the uranium mining business. Its share price has been struggling despite positive developments at its Honeymoon uranium project.

The company kicked off production earlier this year, showing initial promise. However, expectations for production volumes have cooled during the 'ramp-up' period.

Perhaps more importantly, a consolidation in spot uranium prices saw the entire ASX uranium basket trade lower toward the end of FY24.

At the time of writing, the radioactive metal is trading at US$81.25 per pound, down from highs of US$106 per pound in February.

Uranium prices heavily dictate Boss's outcomes. The ASX 200 share's price is highly sensitive to fluctuations in the price of uranium.

What's next for Boss Energy?

It's not all doom and gloom for the ASX 200 mining share, so it seems. The Ausbil MicroCap Fund commented on Boss in its July performance update. It noted its position in the stock fell 11% during the month.

While BOE is progressing initial production at the Honeymoon project and proving technical success, expectations of production volumes have been tempered during the ramp-up period.

Poor share price performance has also been exacerbated by a consolidation in spot uranium prices and a material selldown by management. With production expectations reset, we look to strong execution over the coming quarters to restore market faith.

Analysts also see potential in the stock. Bell Potter rates it a buy, though the broker has slightly lowered its price target to $5.75. This suggests a potential upside of nearly 60% from current levels.

According to my colleague James, Bell Potter is particularly optimistic about the company's Honeymoon operation. If the project continues to perform well, Boss Energy could surpass its production guidance for FY25, it says.

The broker also believes the stock offers significant value at these levels, especially as the company ramps up operations at Honeymoon and the newly acquired Alta Mesa project in Texas.

Ultimately, however, the ASX 200 mining share's performance will be heavily dictated by the price of uranium.

Foolish takeaway

Boss Energy shares have taken a hit in the past few months, but the story doesn't appear to be over.

While the stock has dropped nearly 50%, if analyst opinions are correct, there remains potential for a significant rebound.

If the company can deliver on its production goals and benefit from a rising uranium market, investors could see strong returns.