Russia has been reducing its holding of USD for years.
And it has been moving away from the SWIFT system.
And during the Beijing Olympics (in a few days time), China will unveil the digital RMB. As well, China and Russia will unveil an alternative to the Swift System.
So there is a limit to what the US could do against Russia, using Swift and the USD. And US's trade with Russia is circa $25B (Russia's export to the US), which is immaterial to Russia when compared to Russia's GDP of $1.7T.
As to resources, Europe (Germany) needs Russian gas and oil. They are the cheapest around. Any sanction on O&G from Europe will cripple Europe's economies and the World - we will likely see Oil prices reaching $200 per barrel.
And the world will be thrown into a deep recession.
IMHO, Russia has been preparing for this (for years), as their external debt has been steadily reducing; it currently stands at circa $480B.
As a % of its GDP ($1.7 Trillions), it is very manageable (at 28%).
Russia's biggest trading partner is China - and they recently signed deals to increase gas and agricultural exports up to $200B per year, within the next 5 years (they exceeded $100B p.a last year). And they will be paid in either gold or digital RMB, bypassing any sanction from the Swift system.
Germany and most of Europe will have no choice, but to take Russian gas.
One should note, even during the worst days of the Cold War with the former Soviet Union, most of Europe was buying Russian oil and gas. So they won't abandon trades with Russia - maybe sanction some sectors, but not oil and gas.
In any case, for this to be resolved, all Ukraine has to do, is declare itself to be a Switzerland, but the Ukrainian Gov and Oligarchs either won't do or is not allowed to take that decision.
And most Ukrainian will never realize they were just pawns in this geopolitical game.
Ukraine being part of NATO will become an existential threat to Russia's survival. That's the bottom line.
As Putin have said, its like having Russian bases in Cuba or the Gulf of Mexico, pointing missiles at the US.
Any Ukrainian expecting either NATO or the US to come help fight, are suffering from delusion.
Russia has more than 6,000 nukes - enough to obliterate the world 10 times over, and all Russian Subs have already been sent out to sea, to provide them with a deterrent.
In any case, war is very profitable for some. Many arms dealers will get to sell hundreds of billions of dollars in weaponry.
So we are likely to see a short, sharp war between Ukraine and Russia. When its all over, Ukraine will either be broken up into a federation of min-states or become a client state of Russia.
