HerculesIve got a reasonable grasp on Chinese history including...

Hercules

Ive got a reasonable grasp on Chinese history including an ex wifes who's grandfather was in the diplomatic core who covered China in the 50's-early 70s , long and many conversations with him and proof reading his two books on chinese history enriched my insight and like I have mentioned on this thread in the past I have been there +40 times since 81 on business and pleasure.

I go back to fundamentals, my sympathy and support for the nation and its people is as solid as you get. What worries me is the fundamental imbalances, no doubt their place in the world will be in a leadership role over the next few decades and their turn, along with the Indians is long overdue.

That said they wont get easily, the sheer size of the population and the imbalances they face along the way are huge. Yes they will get there and yes no one can be certain of how this unfolds. Its an easy out to claim that anyone that doubts your version of the future is bashing China and while grwoing up there gives you more insight than most I wouldnt claim to have a perfect vision of Austrlalia's future just because I grew up here.

Credit growth, money supply growth , inflation, an economy dangerously reliant on exports , a centrally planned economy and an always menacing and dangerous interventionist US foreign policy , threaten the country with turmoil along the way. The reality is the Chinese are as married to America as America is married to China, Chinoamerica is relationship is suffering significant stress, folks day dream about its rise to that of a global superpower but forget that kind of traditional takes multiple decades, there is not an empire in the world thats changed hands in less than 30 years, with an economy 25% of the US its likely to take at least 20 years. Nationalism or anti nationalism usually translates to poor economy policy, the Chinese may think that the normal economic laws dont apply to them but essentially they are choosing growth over stability

Printing money wont work any better for China than it has for anyone else in history