@Hawketrader i don’t understand your questions. Why don’t you take the trouble to satisfy your own curiosity. You will learn something that way.
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“Your unvaccinated friend is roughly 20 times more likely to give you COVID” is the headline of an article published in The Conversation on Oct. 28.
the authors, two Melbourne-based analysts, Christopher Baker and Andrew Robinson, wondered why a person vaccinated against covid-19 would care about the vaccine status of another person.
here are excerpts from their essay.
“Briefly, it’s because vaccines reduce the probability of getting infected, which reduces the probability of a vaccinated person infecting someone else. And, despite vaccination providing excellent protection against severe disease, a small proportion of vaccinated people still require ICU care. Therefore some vaccinated people may have a strong preference to mix primarily with other vaccinated people.”
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”Recent reports from the Victorian Department of Health find that unvaccinated people are ten times more likely to contract COVID than vaccinated people.
”We also know that vaccinated people are less likely to transmit the disease even if they become infected. The Doherty modelling from August puts the reduction at around 65%, although more recent research has suggested a lower estimate for AstraZeneca. Hence for this thought experiment, we’ll take a lower value of 50%.
”As the prevalence of COVID changes over time, it’s hard to estimate an absolute risk of exposure. So instead, we need to think about risks in a relative sense. If I were spending time with an unvaccinated person, then there’s some probability they’re infected and will infect me. However, if they were vaccinated, they’re ten times less likely to be infected and half as likely to infect me, following the numbers above.
”Hence we arrive at a 20-fold reduction in risk when hanging out with a vaccinated person compared to someone who’s not vaccinated.”
Christopher Baker is a Research Fellow in Statistics for Biosecurity Risk, The University of Melbourne Andrew Robinson is CEO of the Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, The University of Melbourne.
