The Value of Israel’s Nuclear Deterrence by Emanuel A. Winston Dec 24, '03 / 29 Kislev 5764
Moammar Gadhafi has proclaimed[1] that Libya will disclose and abandon plans to develop nuclear, biological and chemical weapons. This deal, which could lift United Nations sanctions and allow Libya to purchase and arm with conventional weapons, namely, missiles, aircraft, tanks, etc., was negotiated by the British. Guess who will be first in line to sell these conventional weapons to Gadhafi?
Clearly, eliminating NBC (Nuclear, Biological and Chemical) weapons held by rogue nations is all to the good. Except that Libya has never been known to successfully develop such materials internally - so far. They always tried to purchase finished, ready-to-go weapons from outside sources. As in Iraq, it will take years to inspect the deserts of Libya to locate its hidden manufacturing facilities and to disassemble the equipment when found. I heard several years ago that, after the 1991 Gulf War, Saddam had disseminated his efforts to produce WMD to Libya, Syria, Sudan and other rogue states. I wonder why this was ignored for so long.
Some may recall Gadhafi’s early efforts to purchase an operational nuclear bomb from China - a request which was turned down. He wanted to hit Tel Aviv with a nuclear weapon and, driven by his Islamic frustration, continued to either buy or try to build WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction). Gadhafi was also one of the financial contributors (along with Egypt, Syria, Iran and Saudi Arabia) for Pakistan to build an "Islamic Bomb" and thus secure operational nukes in return for their investment. (That may have already occurred with Iran.)
After America bombed the chemical plant at Rabta (on the surface and not buried), Gadhafi, with the assistance of the Japanese and Germans, built a vast underground complex to produce supposedly ‘innocent insecticides’ - the dual-use equipment for which could produce poison gases, chemical and biological weapons. Has Gadhafi offered to destroy this complex?
How much of the weapons material and technology has he already released to Al-Qaeda and other terrorists? Therefore, via his present disclosure, he could now claim innocence when Al-Qaeda strikes - even if some of the equipment is back-tracked to Libya. Granted, Gadhafi may have been frightened by Saddam’s capture, but let’s remember that Saddam’s weapons scientists were loaded onto transports for Libya from 1991 onwards, in order to develop Saddam’s WMD out of sight in the Libyan deserts.
What I also smell from this announcement is something else in the Bush Administration’s planning for the region. I believe this is a slow but steady buildup to a diplomatic aneurysm when, after Libya and Iran agree to nuclear inspections, then the real target, Israel, will be cited as “violating new international accords against nuclear weapons in the Middle East.”
This ‘announcement’ has already come from the United Nations’ supposedly non-political (and generally incompetent) IAEA: “Israel should destroy its nuclear weapons if it wants real security, according to the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. In an interview with the Ha’aretz newspaper, IAEA head Mohamed El-Baradei called on Israel to destroy the weapons it is believed to have as part of a general peace agreement in the Middle East, and to join the Non-Proliferation Treaty. While Israel has never acknowledged having nuclear weapons, ‘we operate under the assumption that Israel has nuclear arms. Israel has never denied this,’ El-Baradei said.”[2] This agency, the IAEA, an arm of the discredited UN, has been notoriously incompetent in monitoring nuclear development in North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Libya, etc., and it seems it has now been recruited as a political ‘shill’ against Israel.
Some will recall the Madrid Conference in 1991 (a.k.a. ambush against Israel), during which I predicted that one of the Arab countries would raise the matter of Israel’s undisclosed nuclear deterrent. Like clockwork, near the end of the Madrid Ambush of Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir, the Egyptian representative demanded that the Middle East become a ‘Nuclear-Free Zone’ and that Israel, specifically, was to stand-down her nuclear deterrent.
It was my opinion at the time that it would be the Arabist US State Department, then represented by Jim Baker’s Jewish team of Dennis Ross, Aaron Miller and Daniel Kurtzer (later joined by Martin Indyk), who encouraged the Egyptians to start the process of eliminating Israel’s undisclosed nuclear deterrent. This deterrent was Israel’s only chance to survive against any coalition of Arab armies assaulting her, again, with their newest weapons from the Free World - equal in quality and surpassing in quantity those the Arab armies possess and intend to use against Israel, whom they declare is their mortal enemy.
I don’t believe hostile Arab leaders (whether dictators or mullahs) are capable of being de-programmed. I also see the fingerprints of the anti-Semitic European Union, the Arabist US State Department, the always anti-Israel United Nations and Russia, the country with an appalling history of anti-Jewish pogroms. This infamous ‘Quartet’ is most likely arranging a series of theatrical showpieces indicating that well-known hostiles like Iran and Libya have accepted a concept of “no WMD” - including NBC (Nuclear, Biological and Chemical) arms and the missile throw-weight to aim them far and accurately. I wonder if this assemblage of nations will themselves ever eliminate all the NBC in their own inventories? I don’t think so.
Then, the demand will be made that Israel stand down and eliminate her one major deterrent card, that of a feared nuclear retaliatory response should these hostiles decide to invade Israel for the seventh major war.
Some people say there were seven previous wars, if you count Desert Storm when 39 SCUDs were launched by Saddam Hussein against Israel from January 16 to Purim in February, 1991. Israelis sat in their gas masks in their plastic-sealed rooms, with their babies in plastic gas tents. It was a war in which Israel was forbidden to retaliate by President George Bush, Sr. Therefore, it was a war in which Israel fought by being stalwart and courageous, by not fighting back. The Bush/Baker Administration had promised Israel that it would launch seek-and-destroy missions against Saddam’s SCUD launchers. But, after the first Gulf War, the GAO (U.S. General Accounting Office) disclosed that virtually no such missions were undertaken. My opinion at the time was that Saddam had SCUD warheads filled with gas and other agents, which the Bush/Baker crowd knew about and believed he would fire to ensure a devastating attack on Israel. The only reason Saddam didn’t use his NBC was because he feared Israel’s capability for nuclear retaliation.
What proved my belief correct was when Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger wryly commented (as heard on Israeli radio at 4:00am January 16, 1991): “It is a shame that Israel is being hit with nerve gas.” Let’s remember who supplied Saddam with this capability. Weinberger knew Saddam had such weapons and believed the first salvo of SCUDs indeed had poison gas. Saddam’s NBC capability was the information that Weinberger and Admiral Bobby Ray Inman refused to transfer to Israel, despite America’s obligatory agreements as signed in several presidential MOUs (Memorandums of Understanding). This is exactly what and why Jonathan Pollard felt pressed to disclose such vital information to Israel. Fortunately, Weinberger was mistaken as to Saddam’s decision to use those poison gas SCUDs. Because Israel had threatened Saddam with nuclear retaliation, Saddam accepted Israel’s ability to issue such a deterrent threat and, therefore, launched ‘only’ conventional SCUDs.
Add to that fact the 19-year imprisonment of Jonathan Pollard for blowing the cover of what Bush, Baker and Weinberger knew about Saddam’s WMD capability. Clearly, the wrong guys escaped federal prison and the ‘whistle-blower’ caught the blame. He has been imprisoned for giving this vital information to Israel, America’s ally, and for more years than anyone who ever spied for an enemy of America.
Although Israel has an outstanding military and has fought off the combined Arab armies in six major wars on three fronts and withstood almost 120 years of ongoing Terrorism by using only conventional force, there is another fact to be considered. The Arab nations with 160 million or more people, plus the Muslims from other nations (who have presently joined to fight American forces in Iraq) can swamp Israel with unlimited numbers of soldiers, should they unite against the one Jewish State, along with the hi-tech weapons sold to them by the West.
Therefore, Israel must forever have a devastating deterrent capability, which would not only eliminate advancing armies but would also destroy those nations who dare to send those armies. This would include Arab, non-Arab Muslims and/or European nations allied to the Arabs, who would all seek to eliminate Israel.
Perhaps I am over-reacting to the threat of converging interests such as the Arab nations (read: oil), the European nations (read: oil), the UN (read: oil and the collective anti-Israel/anti-Jewish voting blocks), et al. But I don’t think that the Arabs, driven by hatred of the Jewish State, or the more driving force of the radical fundamentalist Islamists, will cease their efforts until they win or are themselves totally destroyed. In order to accomplish their final goals with the assistance of the Arabist US State Department, the EU and the UN, they must find a way to strip Israel of its hitherto undisclosed nuclear deterrence. Once having accomplished this, then Israel, with only conventional arms, will be an irresistibly vulnerable target for a full-scale invasion. The State Department has recognized long ago that hostile Arab/Muslim nations cannot be reasoned with or appeased and, therefore, in the interest of oil and other cash-producing ventures, it must be Israel who will be sacrificed.
As for requesting nations like Syria, Iran, Egypt, Libya, Saudi Arabia* to cease building or acquiring missiles, fighter aircraft, destroying the chemical and biological plants or missile war-heads, I wouldn’t count on it.
I wonder how soon the Arabist State Department, the Jew-hating Europeans or the Arab/Muslims, led by Egypt, will make some grand announcement, probably through the UN, that Israel must accept a "Disarmament Agreement for the Sake of Peace" by making the Middle East a Nuclear-Free Zone. Perhaps the campaign will be initiated by Shimon Peres and his gaggle of Osloids, like Yossi Beilin and Avrum Burg, all shouting that it’s time for a love-in.
Whenever it starts, be assured that it has been cooking on the stove since well before the Madrid Conference. Making Israel vulnerable was planned long before the Bush plan for another Arab State of Palestine, which will inevitably be a central base for training and implementing terror world-wide. If Israel is to be extinguished as an irritant to the Arab nations, then Israel must first be forced to withdraw to indefensible borders and then stripped of her feared nuclear deterrence. With a terrorist state on her borders and the same nations still pledged through Islamic law to eliminate non-Muslim entities, Israel’s existence is continually threatened.
All of this will be lathered over with treaties, agreements, solemn assurances, citing of international law and lots of paper. Then, when the time comes, all will go into the shredder, having no importance to begin with. Regrettably, the Jewish State of Israel, and Jews in general, believe in contracts, agreements, gestures of appeasement, and are always surprised when their partner(s) simply ignore those tediously crafted agreements.
After the pressure to disarm is placed on Israel - which is the stick - no doubt, the US will offer a fantasy carrot. This will likely be an offer for Israel to receive new equipment, somewhat like the deal former President Clinton offered if Israel would retreat from the high ground of the Golan Heights - all based on reliance on US (or UN) observers to warn Israel if the president of Syria starts to prepare his troops, missiles, tanks and planes for war.
Another carrot would be to offer to place American troops on the Arab Palestinian/Israeli borders of the proposed new Palestinian State to act as ‘peace-keepers’ - as was done in the Sinai after the peace accords signed with Egypt in 1979. Neither of these options are as effective as Israel’s own intelligence and ability to respond within precious minutes against any launched missiles and/or aircraft.
The next step is for Israel to ignore this ‘heads-up’ and to negotiate her own demise - as Ariel Sharon is presently doing. I guess it’s something in our genes.
Footnotes 1. "Libya to End Nuclear Program" by Jeff Zeleny & Stephen J. Hedges, Chicago Tribune, December 20, 2003. 2. "IAEA TO ISRAEL: SCRAP NUKES" in The Jewish Press, December 19, 2003.
* The U.S. has just dropped its promise to Israel to prevent Saudi Arabia from basing its F15s in Tabuk, near Israel. Israel’s concern was that the F15s might fall into the hands of Saudi Muslim extremists and used as was done on 9/11 by the Saudi and Egyptian terrorists committed to Wahhabism and Jihad.
