the value of sillaro

Hi guys,

Let's try breaking this down. Now, let's assume PVE currently only has the Sillaro well and nothing else.

Productions have begun and Sillaro is expected to produce 110,000 cubic meters of gas per day. Current 2P reserves are 14bcf.

100,000 cubic meters a day = 3,884,613 cubic feet
So annually we should produce = 1,417,883,745 cubic feet
Reserves are 14 bcf = 14,000,000,000 cubic feet
That gives us about 9.87 years of production from this well, give or take.

Gas price for May according to PVE's quarterly activities report is 29.5 cents per cubic meter

110,000 cubic meters per day = Revenue of $32,450 per day (110,000 * 29.5 cents)
Revenue per annum should then be = $11,844,250 ($32,450 * 365)

Assuming a discount factor of 15% per annum, our total revenue for 9.87 years should be $67,922,389:

Year 1 $11,844,250
Year 2 $10,299,348 ($11,844,250 * 1.15)
Year 3 $8,955,955 ($11,844,250 * 1.15^2)
Year 4 $7,787,787 ($11,844,250 * 1.15^3)
Year 5 $6,771,988 ($11,844,250 * 1.15^4)
Year 6 $5,888,686 ($11,844,250 * 1.15^5)
Year 7 $5,120,596 ($11,844,250 * 1.15^6)
Year 8 $4,452,692 ($11,844,250 * 1.15^7)
Year 9 $3,871,906 ($11,844,250 * 1.15^8)
Year 9.87 $2,929,181 ($11,844,250 * 0.87 years * 1.15^9)

Again, assuming total cost amounts to about 35% of revenue, net profit should then be about $44,149,553 ($67,922,389 - $23,772,836)

Value per share = $44,149,553/110,179,926 Ordinary shares allotted
Value of Sillaro alone per share = $0.40

Again to remind you, the calculations above are based on production rates of Sillaro alone. And, I assumed that the gas price of EUR 29.5 cents will not increase (The gas price for Mar and Apr were 27.4 and 28.35 cents respectively - sign of prices increasing in the future)

Feel free to give your opinions and views.

Cheers,

arisie