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The week ahead, page-32

  1. 15,916 Posts.
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    we're in that weird zone right now re: commodity prices, where it's damned if you do/damned if you don't. for months on end the demise of the copper price was being blamed on Chinese import data. Now China has turned in a near-record 530kMt import of copper for december, and the press is reporting new falls in copper price as being associated with concerns that the data can't be transparent.

    This sort of reporting reeks of desperation, which is traditionally the final stage of a corrective wave.
    I've made the mistake of thinking we've hit the bottom about 3 or 4 times now, which usually means we haven't (as it lacks desperation), and it probably means that when i stop thinking there is a bottom, then we might actually be there. Ironically, that is exactly how i'm feeling. I can't work out whether this new failure of support means 1.80 needs to be tested in a measured move, or whether we are witnessing a small "false break", which typically precedes a reversal.

    So maybe it means we are almost there?

    lol...
 
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