The Whens and Whys of Top Biotech M&A Deals, page-21

You are neglecting the value of trofinetide, and the value of other indications outside PMS in this calc. The assertion is that value of 2591 should be $10B in 4 years time post approval for PMS (but you are only talking about PMS). You are not even doing a 'fair' comparison since PMS is approx 3 times as prevalent in populations as Freidrich's Ataxia (NEU says PMS is 1 in 8,000 to 1 in 15,000 vs FA which is 1 in 40,000). Given the market size is ~3x, you'd expect something closer to 3x the value for PMS alone.

If you had the continued development of other indications (and it is unlikely to be just 3 or 4 at that stage) and the growing income from trof both NA and ROW, you would expect a MC quite a way beyond the $10B being quoted as relevant in 4 yrs time.

I don't really understand people saying they'd be disappointed having a 5 bagger in 4 years either. Sure, everyone wants to get paid $100 per share tomorrow, but on the other hand if you know of a high conviction 400%+ in 4 years, surely you would take that every day of the week. I know I would. I know I am happy to. And I think given market size of our current indications and 'platform nature' of 2591, 1000% is actually more likely than 400%.