The Whens and Whys of Top Biotech M&A Deals, page-6

While the share price lives in a world of its own I am trying to see how Neuren's future will evolve. I have already searched for a doomsday scenario but I can't find one before a phase 3 readout so my new favourite word is 'competition'

From Hottod's original post, Neuren seems to be most similar to Cerevel and Prometheus Biosciences, rather than Reata, who had a drug already approved. I think Jon may use Reata as a reference point for value only.

I don't think the investor roadshows at the moment are the reason Neuren is in the USA twice in a short space of time, I think it is to meet potential acquirers. I genuinely believe Neuren will be competed for as Prometheus Biosciences was. Note that Prometheus' share price descended from $126 to $92 before its takeover announcement despite having competitors for it.

These are snippets from an article on Merck's website (https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/merck-late-stage-talks-acquire-prometheus-biosciences-wsj-2023-04-16/)

"This is allowing us to move into immunology in a strong way and will allow us sustainable growth, we think, well into the 2030s given the long patent life," Merck Chief Executive Robert Davis said in an interview.

Davis said the Prometheus drug, PRA023, being developed to treat two inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) - ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease - and other autoimmune conditions, could be a multibillion-dollar seller for Merck. He said the recent release of encouraging mid-stage trial results drove Merck to pounce.

"We've been watching their clinical development program for a while," Davis said.

Merck has acquired a game-changing asset in PRA023," said Samimy.

(I laughed when I read Merck was driven to buy PB because of 'encouraging' mid-trial results)

You could easily substitute 2591 into those sentences. I have changed my mind about the Phase 3 meeting being pivotal since Jon said it was only about PMS. I misinterpreted what had been said earlier as I thought it was all about 2591 and would set the scene for everything. So, I think the timeline will be Phase 3 meeting results released (max of 30 days after the FDA meeting) followed by the release of the undisclosed indications which hopefully show multiple conditions that 2591 can treat without competition.

I think the 'no competition' aspect is the key. PWS is off the table due to competition, Angelman is marginal but still a possibility due to competition, but if you line up PM + PH + Undisclosed Conditions with no competition + the possibility of treating mainstream conditions in the future you have a game-changing asset.

The recent buys by the director are a clear signal to keep the faith and the lowly share price doesn't mean Neuren goes for near $25. It will be bought for a competitive price - because that is what competition brings. Which big pharma would allow the opposition to pick up Neuren for a dime compared to what was paid in the top 10 list? Big Pharma competitiveness (Should I call it greed?) might be the thing that ultimately works in Neuren's favour.

Just my updated thoughts away from the day-to-day stuff. We shall see if they are worth $0.32, $15.32 or $75.32 by the end of the year.