the whereu dilemma, page-292

  1. 24,401 Posts.
    There are may possibilities, multiverse, many worlds/quantum, cyclic, etc.

    As for a created World, the best candidate would have to be high tech quantum simulation....not that I believe it, or argue for it.

    It goes like this; if some species has gotten to the point of quantum computing and beyond, and they are running simulated worlds, there is likely to be far more simulated world than the presumed one original world.

    So given the vast number of simulated worlds, we are statistically more likely to be a part of a simulated world, rather than the one original world.

    Someone has even given a formal argument, but using the future human race as the agents...which is not really necessary. You could propose an Alien species running experiments  in relation to 'whatever' may evolve.

    ABSTRACT



    This paper argues that at least one of the following propositions is true: (1) the human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage; (2) any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof); (3) we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation. It follows that the belief that there is a significant chance that we will one day become posthumans who run ancestor-simulations is false, unless we are currently living in a simulation. A number of other consequences of this result are also discussed.

    The basic idea of this paper can be expressed roughly as follows: If there were a substantial chance that our civilization will ever get to the posthuman stage and run many ancestor-simulations, then how come you are not living in such a simulation?
    We shall develop this idea into a rigorous argument. Let us introduce the following notation:

    : Fraction of all human-level technological civilizations that survive to reach a posthuman stage

    : Average number of ancestor-simulations run by a posthuman civilization

    : Average number of individuals that have lived in a civilization before it reaches a posthuman stage

    The actual fraction of all observers with human-type experiences that live in simulations is then





    VII. CONCLUSION
    A technologically mature “posthuman” civilization would have enormous computing power. Based on this empirical fact, the simulation argument shows that at least one of the following propositions is true: (1) The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage is very close to zero; (2) The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in running ancestor-simulations is very close to zero; (3) The fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one.
    If (1) is true, then we will almost certainly go extinct before reaching posthumanity. If (2) is true, then there must be a strong convergence among the courses of advanced civilizations so that virtually none contains any relatively wealthy individuals who desire to run ancestor-simulations and are free to do so. If (3) is true, then we almost certainly live in a simulation. In the dark forest of our current ignorance, it seems sensible to apportion one’s credence roughly evenly between (1), (2), and (3).
    Unless we are now living in a simulation, our descendants will almost certainly never run an ancestor-simulation.



    http://www.simulation-argument.com/simulation.html





 
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