it says all, the whole is 37 PAGESOffice of the Press...

it says all, the whole is 37 PAGES

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REPORT TO THE PRESIDENTON U.S. PREPARATIONS FOR
2009-H1N1 INFLUENZA

MAIN RECOMMENDATION (CHAPTER 3)
We recommend that DHHS rapidly develop a limited number of specific scenarios and disseminate them to Federal, state, local and private decision-makers for planning purposes. Components of these scenarios ideally would include:
i. timing and magnitude of the fall epidemic;
ii. peak burden on primary care providers, emergency rooms, hospital admissions, and ICUs;
iii. number of doses and timing of vaccine availability;
iv. dosing requirements and efficacy of vaccine; and
v. efficacy and supply of antiviral drugs and medical materiel.

REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT ON U.S. PREPARATIONS FOR 2009-H1N1 INFLUENZA Beyond this scenario, alternative scenarios are needed to take into account the possibility that major assumptions are incorrect. In particular, four variations are of notable importance:

1. A milder scenario in which the number of deaths and severe cases is much lower than outlined here, perhaps because many mild cases or infections without symptoms were missed in the spring, leading to an overestimate of the severity.

2. A modified scenario in which a large fraction (e.g., one-third) of 2009-H1N1 cases are resistant to oseltamivir (Tamiflu) by the peak of the epidemic, reducing the effectiveness of an important method for mitigating the epidemic.