Hi Zac, no question strong move, seen lots of 20pc moves suddenly to the upside all the way down, lots of down low bids giving the impression that traders are scrambling for stock,20PC plus rise off the lows but last time I checked, debt still remains, AUD falling, (as Ive said many times before , lower AUD lower gold in the end)margins.....they are lowering guidance, margins worst last QTR than the QTR before and the QTR before and the QTR before.....enjoy the trade buy please don't tell me NCM is value investment, gold goes back towards 1200 USD and we will no doubt see how strong and how leveraged the price is
Zac that's fine your having another go, if your keen to buy no div,,,because it doesn't matter,,,,,,,,,,,,,good luck with that theory,,,that's what they said at 42 -40-35-30-26-24-22....div doesn't matter, return doesn't matter, debt doesn't matter, falling margin doesn't matter, falling AUD will lift its top line ,,,blah blah....even its a takeover target because of all its reserves.
As with the theory of falling supply from worldwide mine closures,,,,,so what,,plenty of hoarded gold read to trade at a moments notice.....its an emotional assets,,,yes it has been up over ten years.....
Someone had some figures up earlier on the Gold threads, here they were talking about the cash costs per mine and Hidden valley was at 1790 or something insane....so if that mine had a nice % of NCM's reserves,,,and those gold reserves costs you significantly more than you could sell those reserves,,,,,,,what is so appealing about that.....in 2013 are we rushing to take things like that over,,,,is a mining executive going to say,,,,check it out ,,,,NCM has huge resources in a number of mines,,,,they cant make margin on them but we better buy them to increase outr reserves so we can then mothball the asset...really......someone that super dumb is out there? Barrick Newmont etc are that stupid?,,to buy reserves that make no margin? ARe they going to pay book value for a business (a Mine) that they lose money on everything they produce...is that the new idea of capitalism,,,,,,buy super loss making mines for top dollar?
Forecasts were for 2.3M OZ,,,,now the lower end,,,now lower....(told you,,,,forget what they are GONNA do and invest on what they ACTUALLY do....tell me,,,even though the AUD is falling,,,what would happen to NCM production if they cut down on hidden valley or telfer etc,,,,,,can Cadia and Lihir make up the difference,,,,,,what production are you now expecting,,, a couple of months ago people were saying long term we will be doing 3M ounces,,,,,,,,,,mmmmm when is NCM going to do 3M oz, next year,,,,,,,year after........they have already said restructuring, writedowns and no profit,,,,,,,,,as Ive said for a couple of years,,you can ramp up,,,,but if the margin falls you need to ramp up even more to maintain EPS.....and unless Im mistaken, NCM has announced a review of its mines...
Nice one Opt, sold my long side hedge too early it appears as it went bonkos towards the close...all Id comment is that whilst you are right about discussions of gold,,,,,your comments assume that it cannot go back down and at the end of the day,,They said Gold would never go down becasue of 11 years str8 line growth and it has,,,NCM can have a new CEO,,,new management but if the market price drops all the resumes and "plans" mean nothing.......
FT howd ya go?
NCM Price at posting:
$10.85 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
