The question you should ask yourself: "Is the bet (on Li) still...

The question you should ask yourself: "Is the bet (on Li) still valid?"

If you look at global warming/CO2 and see the commitments that entire industries have been forced into (e.g. auto industry, utilities, etc.), your answer is probably "yes".

In this case, everything that is currently happening looks to me like a combination of "consolidation" and "tree-shaking". Consolidation in the sense of withdrawing money from projects that still have to prove themselves and looking for safer havens. This can also include the hope of a "cheaper buyback".

Personally, I hate the legend of big money "tree shaking" to get the mum and dad investors out. Anyway, it looks pretty much like that, doesn't it?

I'm sitting on a Li portfolio myself with 6 figure losses in the last few weeks and I haven't sold a single share. In hindsight, I should have, but with a resounding "yes" to the above question, that was out of the question as sentiment could have turned again at any time.

So what about AGY?

We will be the next lithium producer on the ASX - full stop.

So our assessment will change from EXPLORER: "How big are their resources?", "Do they have experienced management?" or "What do they promise for production in a few years?" to PRODUCER: "What are their revenues, EBIT, etc.".

In parallel we have all the potential upgrades: Resource expansion, 10kt expansion, Tonopath, .... Sounds like a broken record, huh?

Yes, but it's true.

My gut feeling is that the market has overlooked these aspects and we are still being treated like an explorer. That could change if capital takes advantage of the consolidation to redeploy its resources into the champions of this sector.

Given our timeline, I am convinced that although we are still small, we could be one of them.