BAL 0.00% $13.23 bellamy's australia limited

There has been no statement from BAL, page-16

  1. 42 Posts.
    did the company say anything about the time of the release of Q1 FY17 result?

    I think the drop is only partially due to the ABC's erroneous report, I believe it's majorly because of the citi report which was posted today at 12 am.

    Sharemarket high-flyers Bellamy’s Australia and A2 Milk could be facing a sales “hole’’ over the next year as growth from the crucial $US20 billion ($26bn) China infant formula market is threatened by crashing prices due to bloated stock levels, competition and regulatory risks covering the sale of formula and milk powders.
    In a new report from Citi, which has slapped a sell recommendation on Bellamy’s and A2 Milk, analyst Sam Teeger has warned forecast sales growth for both companies could slow and remain volatile until January 2018 as a result of stricter Chinese infant formula rules.
    A2 Milk, which sells its fresh milk in Australia as well as infant formula milk into China, faces the added complication of a looming court case against rival dairy group Lion Group — owner of Pura and Dairy Farmers — over the use of A2 protein on labels and the science behind A2’s health-related claims.
    But it is the uncertainty around recent regulatory changes in China, including the need for registration by the China Food and Drug Administration (CFDA), that could do the most damage to Bellamy’s and A2 Milk’s bottom lines, Citi has advised clients in a 60-page report on the infant formula sector.
    “Recent feedback from international infant formula companies and Citi’s China consumer analysts indicate the next 6-12 months is likely to be a challenging period in China,’’ Mr Teeger said in the report.
    “There are concerns about distributor destocking and price competition to clear the inventory overhang of those infant formula products not qualified for registration under the new regulation.
    “Further, we cannot rule out the risk that A2 Milk and/or Bellamy’s do not receive their CFDA certifications by the January 2018 deadline, which has the potential to lead to a short-term sales hole.
    “The earnings growth of A2 Milk and Bellamy’s are highly dependent on Chinese sales, which we estimate represent at least 40 per cent and 50 per cent of group estimate 2017 sales, including indirect sales.
    “The infant formula market in China is estimated to be worth $US20bn.
    “But new regulatory changes and oversight, including stricter controls on imports such as a maximum number of products allowed to be produced by each manufacturer, could put a break on that sector’s growth.
    “We expect China sales are likely to be volatile until January 2018 and believe the geopolitical risks facing both companies should not be underestimated.
    “We see greater downside risk to A2 Milk and view its 33 per cent 2017 P/E premium over Bellamy’s as unwarranted given lingering legal risk from the Lion court case.
    “We are 16 per cent and 20 per cent below consensus 2017 net profit for Bellamy’s and A2 Milk respectively.”
    Last edited by jianghe: 31/10/16
 
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