there is also the gap :), page-3

The hardest thing here will be how long to hold on...

If/when the real run comes for ANP, most who are typically attracted to such stocks will tend to over-trade their positions...selling at one price (looking for pip-swings), only to buy back in higher than their sell price...over and over and over.

Been there...done that...lol

The net result of over trading the wrong stock is to reduce one's potential gains...but I guess traders will be traders.

The key to maximising returns in stocks like ANP is to actually understand what the stock is about, the potential events transpiring at a corporate level, how these will drive the price and ultimately, what sort of values one can realistically expect and over what time frames?

Then, when all is said and done, we still have to deal with the wider market dynamics at play, local and global influences, sector and/or stock specific factors, market cycles, the profile of the register, and finally, technical and fundamental considerations.

Not an easy task - but if such things were easy we would all be picking winners every day.

As it stands, for various reasons ANP ticks off enough boxes for me, to the extent it is one of my few long-term accumulation plays. I have been buying on and off for the last 5 months or so since the big run earlier in the year which initially flagged it for my watch list.

The pedigree of the board and potential of their products for such a small capped stock, intrigued me...what was the reason for the lack of interest?

Without a doubt, the termination of the commercialisation license with Teva Pharmaceuticals was a significant setback...perhaps comparable to a micro-cap oil explorer drilling a dry well.

Experience shows these sorts of sell-offs (such as ANP suffered after the Teva exit), are impacted by three main driving forces;

1. Day-traders seeing an obvious trading opportunity.

2. Short-term values are rerated (downwards), resulting in some investors reducing or exiting entirely and;

3. "Players" (larger “active” shareholders) in the stock see an opportunity to push the stock well below the new "rerated” value, in order to pick up cheap stock and thereby average down their net buy-price via a manufactured sell-down...in the expectation once they let the stock go it will rise at some point.

Continuing with the oil explorer as an analogy, ANP effectively suffered a "dry well" event with the Teva termination, but now finds itself drilling another well, in another location, where oil is known to exist but has not been fully tested (ie, ATL1103’s successful primate trials).

To make things more interesting, ANP have sniffs of gas in the well (no adverse effects from the trial = significant de-risking event perhaps missed by the market?), and are about to drill into the target zone (results due shortly).

Trading patterns in Biotechs can be very much like those in oil explorers.

Anyway...we can talk all day about how much potential ANP has, but in the end results are all that will matter…they will either hit oil or not!

ANP was trading comfortably above 4c prior to their "duster" with Teva...since then, we now have more shares on issue, but then again ATL1103 is a more valuable product in my view, with a much quicker path to market.

If...and I suggest if...the stock has been played with, as I suspect it has over the last year or so (particularly since the price spike earlier this year), then the apparent absence of these "players" in recent days has my attention.

Maybe they are finally letting the stock go where it wants...where it deserves?

It’s been a while since a genuine biotech re-rating scenario presented itself...even longer since one actually made the grade and did it right!

ANP has a very good chance of being the one in my view, well at least I hope it does.

Good luck all.

Cheers!