theres just not enough gold..................., page-6

for those following ELLIOT WAVE THEORY

The mid-term Elliott Wave chart of the HUI is shown below, with the thought pattern denoted in green. Last week I had the upper move illustrating a rising wedge that required prices to continue going to support the structure. The pattern obviously collapsed and the HUI is now following a somewhat similar pattern as the XOI. This decline prompted the alternate count become the preferred count due to changes in elements of the pattern. Wave [2] is not likely to be much of a running correction compared to the higher Degree count, but the amount of time thus far is approaching three times that of wave [1]. Likely, there is at least 4-8 weeks of further consolidation in wave (Y) that is either going to be a flat (3-3-5) or a non-limiting triangle structure (3-3-3-3-3). If this count is correct, wave [3].III should last for approximately 3-4 months; so if wave [2].III finishes in early March, wave [3].III is set to terminate in late May/ early June 2008. Assuming wave [4].III lasts until late October 2008, then wave [5].V has the potential to run until the Fib target date of January 30th, 2009. One important thing to note is that in 2003, the HUI topped in December while the junior and exploration stocks continued an upward climb until March 2009. There would represent a 5 year difference between major tops, so if this holds, then it will be recommended to exit junior stocks around February/March 2009. (Note: Wave (W).[2] also can be counted as a diametric triangle (7 legs)).

The long-term Elliott Wave chart of the HUI is shown below, with the thought pattern denoted in green. One important thing to note about Elliott Wave is that short-term patterns may vary but the larger term trend should be well defined. In 2003 at some point (some time ago so I do not remember the exact date), I put up a chart showing “You are Here” for the HUI, which defined a running correction scenario, with a parabolic move in wave III that would follow all the way to the end of the bull market. Previously mentioned targets for wave III are between 1000-1300, depending upon how strong the market advances. Beyond wave III, it will be recommended to shift 70% of remaining profits into gold bullion and the remaining 30% into speculative stocks. Wave V will see any stock with the word “gold” go to the moon, so stocks that have the potential to host a 4-10 million ounce deposit will perform best. It will be irrelevant that a mine takes 7-10 years to be built, as people will be simply looking for gold companies to expand their reserves. Peak oil is going to seriously play into how much gold and silver can actually be mined, but the Johnny and Jane Come-Lately are going to be blinded by the shine of gold and not even see this coming.