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10/09/20
09:51
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Originally posted by moorookamick:
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From the top down: -The USA (not Trump) is trying to economically wreck China, debunk the CCP and break up China into states that wont present a threat to the USA corrent hedgemony. -Our Government has decided that Australia will support the USA in this quest -At preent we are economically dependant on China and without an alternative plan, well into the future -So as the Americans say; we're conflicted by politically and militarily suporting the USA in its quest to economically wreck China and then expect our trade with China to be "apples" So China has decided in teaching us a lesson in international relations: That our China relationship is a package deal and that China will -only trade with us in areas that China has not already organised alternative supplies and at present that's Iron Ore, Met Coal & LNG. -The Trump/China deal in january features increased USA supply of farm products, thermal coal & LNG. We have already been hit by Chinese tariffs & phoney quality/labeling regulations on our Ag exports with the thermal coal & LNG to follow. -That will leave Iron Ore & Met Coal as our only significant remaining exports to China and China has been investing enormous amounts in Africa to replace Aussie supply of these two vital steel making commodities. (China needs increasing amounts of steel to execute its OBI over the next decade) IMO, given that we have prioritised our ideological/National Security values over our Economic Welfare by backing the USA-CIA strategy of economically wrecking China (like what the USA did to the USSR in the late 80s-early 90s), then we need a plan to compensate for our massive loss of China trade. IMO, mini-steel mills wont do it because while mini-mills may replace some of our China steel imports , they certainly wont amount to $200 billion a year in iron ore & met coals which at present is affording us the import of petroleum, motor vehicles, machinery, aeroplanes. hi-tech equipment and renewable energy hardware & software. IMO, Mega Steel Smelters/mills will fill that impending trade deficit by using one third the iron ore/met coals we're mining/exporting now. We can also do ditto with bauxite, gold and gems.by downstream processing/manufacturing. To overcome our weaknesses (Dutch Disease/high labour costs/cumbersome red tale) we can set up SEZs to ensure that our export products are competitively prices. We have already 6 FTAs -excluding China- of which the USA is one; the biggest consumer market in the world. If we want to go "all the way with LBJ" (back the USA all the way) then we should be asking the USA to support our quest to be economically independant from China and , IMO, what better way than financing (not owning) our SEZs and their mega smelters/mills. The USA spent 10s of $Trillions to demolish the USSR and the cost of demolishing China/CCP will likely be 3 times that because China , unlike the USSR, is now the Global Lleader in manufacturing and global trade and it is increasing its GDP (PPP adjusted) lead on the USA during this US/China Economic War with Covid giving China an extra leg-up. So what is a lazy trillion greenbacks to the USA if it finances Australian steel mills starving China of iron ore & met coals and at the same muscling China out of most of its non domestic- OBI steel markets. The bottom line here is that if we want to back the USA all the way to wreck China then the USA has to back us all the way in that quest and at the same time prevent Australia from becomming bankrupt. China has a plan, the US has a covert plan and we have diddly squat!
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PS: We simply have to change our mindset about industrialisation which historically focused on jobs; particuluarly well paid jobs. Our objective should be, as a country, to earn as much national income from exports as we can and then share that wealth equitably with all Aussies. just imagine if we had no personal income tax? That would certainly make the average Aussies salary go further without any pay increase or a Soverign Pension Fund that exempted employers from employee Super payments! Our models here should be Saudi Arabia (no personal income tax) & Norway (Soverign Fund benefitting all Norweigans) In a globalised economy we simply cant manufacture low valued widgets with high cost labour imports and a plethora of red tape . We simply have to play with our strengths; not our weaknesses which are: -Best global quality iron ore with cheapest extraction costs -Best global quality met coals with the cheapest extraction costs -abundance of gold, silver & gems