these are at the bottom now big buy, page-3

I think the fall was caused by combination of four things, first two not being AMU management's fault

1) seasonal cycling out of oil/gas
2) US sub-prime fallout across the markets
3) failure of AMU to deliver significantly increased value (recent drilling with FAR looks disappointing, really, AMU never provides enough information, commercial success meaning diddly if they don't say what they think they've found). My own view (may be wrong) is AMU are not having as much success on their fields as they'd expected. I take recent change in strategy that sees them buying into new drills with FAR as management's recognition that AMUs own areas cannot be drilled fast enough to grow the company and/or their own drilling results are not coming up with the goods previously expected.
4) Australian Renewable Fuels (ARW), big disappointment sucking up too much money and (in my view) risk of further dilution to stay liquid if tallow prices stay high and ARW don't sell a lot more biodiesel. ARW, already well on the back foot, has also stumped up $5 million to its US subsidiary ostensibly for a bunch of reasons but in my view the real issue for its subsidiary to stay liquid!
5) because of 3) and 4) maybe increased view that management haven't had their eye sufficiently on the two key issues for them over the past 2 years - well managing / drilling their substantial leases, and ensuring ARW got off on a commercially viable footing by contracting out most of its biodiesel (subject to meeting quality requirements) BEFORE it built 2 biodiesel plants (which are heavily underutilised and expensive to run)

In my opinion AMU wasted $ millions on share buybacks at much higher prices than now when should actually have been keeping a much closer eye on what their business is really about.

I own AMU, less than in the past but will likely sell the remained when they spud Gross Tete deep (too risky for me given what I consider poor management on other fronts home to roost)

My opinion only, dyo research.