FAR 0.00% 44.0¢ far limited

I suspect opinions on J/V funding in the current market have...

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    I suspect opinions on J/V funding in the current market have flipped.

    Since October the risky end of the oil and gas game has had bond yields skyrocketed to the point that there hasn't been a bond offering in E&P since early October. There's also been a huge increase in the number of these bonds classed as junk bonds. e.g. https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/05/investing/oil-companies-bond-market-debt/index.html There's been hundreds of articles on this over the last few months. The very fact we are on higher yields than 2017 which had lower oil prices should tell investors something about the perception of risk in E&P at the moment. Remember bonds don't see upside yields in good times, so bonds a priced around the view of risks more than anything.

    What this translates to is that JV funding costs are probably rising, but go it alone funding costs for FAR will be higher, it's unclear how high since we don't know how investors will interpret the project specific risk. There just isn't the confidence in bond investors in the stability in the oil markets atm. I hate to speculate on rates / bond yields without any recent similar risk bond offerings, especially with similar time-frames to first oil, but it should be a sign of concern when 5% yields are now 8.5% yields. I can't see WPL having taken on anything above 4% bond for JV debt, which assuming it's linear you are looking towards a 7.5% yield for JV debt assuming risk is treated equally across the market. Unfortunately some of the concern is around global markets, and how a recession could impact oil demand, it's hard to predict what the bond market would price debt for first oil in 2022 at. 

    This translates to FAR likely needing the J/V funding, WPL, CNE and Senegal will likely prefer funding elsewhere. As operator WPL will have a responsibility to look into J/V funding if that was agreed as part of their operations this year, but the JV won't be forced to sign up for it. Investors are staying clear of FAR for reasonably good reason, it's the toughest funding market for oil and gas in years atm, with no recent examples of any similar funding it's hard to gauge risk. Any quotes on funding before October / November  last year should be completely disregarded since those are under completely different market conditions. I'd recommend FAR investors listen in to the WPL full year results Thursday morning, I really wouldn't be surprised if there are questions on JV debt given the bond yields at the moment. It's one of the few current examples of a publicly known future debt, and may provide hints as to how receptive the debt markets are to financing this project, or if the rates are expected to be such that WPL will consider using JV debt.

    I'd also recommend if holding a stock like FAR, you should always have one eye one the E&P bond markets. Until funding is sorted these bond markets are the best indication of market expectation for the debt yield. Look at the yields of bonds on similar companies when possible, if not then on companies that are higher and lower risk to bracket the range. Keep in mind that the markets view on the risk may be different to yours. DYOR.
 
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Last trade - 16.10pm 15/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
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