HJ, haven't been here for quite a while. so can you enlighten me?
What is your thinking? You think something 'other than' the banking system is going to systematically take down the broader markets? I had my sights set on end of Feb2011 for no particular reason - it takes that long for the media to make up stories and sell them to the public. But it's no guarantee of mine.
Main commododity prices obviously and most clearly still up. Copper yet to fall over. Bought some gold contracts at $1310 on Friday to test the water only as I liked the pattern.
Banking indexes BIX/BKX/DJUSBK show only slight divergence with SPX - which always concerns me as a top. These lead the way down for me.
US retail can only be boosted by the fraudulent lending of the banks since 2004 (still being discovered). If relief comes by way of court decisions to terminate more homeloans. To date retail has been given wings by elective default - so repercussions are long from over.
3 month OIS and LIBOR rates not showing any shocks yet - but are turning up (this is my 1 month lead time). Demand for lending might have a short term spike to cover positions I'd say if tihs was hitting the naf. OIS looks like it;s set to bottom out.
BDI shows a massive oversupply of ships which might concern some. Yet DJUSCP (containers)/DJUSRR (railroads) holding very strongly with SP500 - so demand might be as real for transportation.
The only US industrials that matter have topped already -ACI/BTU/MT/VALE/FCX/MCP/GE. GE has gapped up, so looking for it to fill lower. Am watching coal/steel/copper through the above.
The US war machines - RTN/KBR/HAL are looking strong, but not obviously insider trading/diverging for a major spillover yet - these hide behind industrial activity to some degree. I watch these for divergence from here. DYNCORP (DYN) has been taken over by P/E Carlyle which is not surprising, but more ultimately concerning.
Media machines are not topping at all, but look like basing. The republican champion NWS (Aus and US) showing interesting form of late and looks like it's upwards from here. One of my rays of sunshine presently, with the above.
You thinking maybe war somewhere? That would pull the rug out pretty quick if it's anywhere in the Asia/Pacific rim.
That's it from me, as I can't see anything else. I know the banking cartel is still fubar, but look at all that cheap funding. The public is itching to storm the banks if they show their hands again now.
Maybe you can be more specific. It's certainly a nice time to take some profits out if you are worried by it all. But I'm not a hedgebooks rear end.
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