I don’t think ESR will miss. Chris Daws said it best in...

I don’t think ESR will miss.
Chris Daws said it best in Singapore: “I can assure you that when we drill the first hole into 50–55% manganese, we will see a significant re-rating!”

“I can assure you that when we drill the first hole into 50–55% manganese, we will see a significant re-rating!”

And I believe him.

Estrella Resources (ASX: ESR) has had over six months to identify the precise location for its inaugural drill hole at Ira Miri, Timor-Leste and they’re not going in blind. This is not just speculative geology — it's surface-exposed manganese grading up to 58.6% (as reported Feb 12, 2025), with 6m-thick outcropping zones already mapped. If that mineralisation is intersected at or near surface, with minimal overburden, I believe we’ll see a rapid share price re-rating potentially to 10 - 15c.

To give this context:
At Groote Eylandt, one of the world’s premier manganese projects, the ore body is typically 11 meters thick, but under 15–35 meters of overburden. Estrella, by contrast, is looking at high-grade manganese literally sticking out of the ground. That’s not just rare — it’s game-changing from a cost and timing perspective.

The Drill Plan

Estrella's maiden drill campaign is locked in and announced officially on 4th April 2025 (ASX):

• 10,000m of Reverse Circulation (RC) drilling — typically shallower and faster

• 3,000m of Diamond Drilling — slower, more precise, for core recovery

• 90 RC holes currently under environmental review by Timor-Leste’s ANM

That’s an average drill depth of ~ 110m per hole (10,000m ÷ 90) — a significant step beyond shallow scout drilling. It means ESR is not just testing what's at surface, but looking for potential depth extension into hypogene manganese zones, the type of mineralisation that underpins long-life, high-margin deposits.

Why this matters

This isn't a case of "drill and hope."
Estrella has IP geophysical data, surface grades, mapped outcrops, and logistical certainty — including funding and equipment fully mobilised. The analogy I’d use is this:

“When you see the fish schooling at the surface, you don’t cast a line — you drop a net.”
Estrella knows the fish are there — now it’s time to haul them in.

Price Speculation (based on intercept thickness)

Let’s say we get drill results in the next 4–6 weeks. Here's a ballpark expectation of what might happen:

Intercept	Estimated Share Price Reaction
2m of 50%+ Mn at/near surface	Re-rate toward 4c
4m	Momentum builds toward 6c
6m+	Potential breakout into 10c range

Beyond that, if continuity at depth is established (remember: average hole depth is 111m), the upside becomes exponential.

Final Word

This is the first ever modern mineral drilling in Timor-Leste, and ESR has first-mover advantage over 698km² of untouched terrain. Combine that with the geology, the grades, and the sheer strategic timing — and you’ve got a setup that’s genuinely rare in today’s market.

This is not hype.
It’s well-prepared, well-timed, and extremely exciting.